Before we get into today's prediction market. a quick look back at last night.
President Trump delivered the State of the Union address.
We talked about it last Thursday.
I flagged Nick Shirley, said that while he helped uncover billions in fraud, he was underpriced.
He was there. I cashed out at 95%. +65% gain.
But I wasn’t done.
The beauty of prediction markets is sometimes there’s more trades you can make on the same thesis.
Because once it became clear Shirley would likely be there, a natural follow-up question emerged…
If the guy who uncovered billions in Somali fraud is sitting in that room, travelled all that way…
Wouldn't Trump mention Somalia from the podium?
So I also traded the Somalia mention (Trump would mention the word Somali/Somalia/Somalian at the SOTU) as a second, logical extension of the same thesis.
That one paid out too, +76%.
Two predictions. Same underlying thesis.
Both hit.
If you followed either of these, congratulations.
This is exactly what the newsletter is built for.
If you’d like to be alerted to when prediction trades like these are sent on a regular basis, drop your email below, or click reply if you’re reading this in an email with one word, “ALERT”.
I’ll add you to the waitlist until it’s official.
Now, on to today.
Will U.S. forces directly take part in an anti‑cartel operation on Mexican soil by March 31?
Given how Mexico has blown up over the last couple days, it’s no surprise as of Monday night volume is almost $700,000.
El Mencho and the Tourist Panic
Over the weekend, Mexican special forces killed Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes, the longtime boss of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, in an operation in Jalisco.
Arguably the most wanted cartel figure in the country.
The aftermath was something from the movies.
The Jalisco operation triggered gun battles, explosions, and arson across multiple states.
Vehicles and shops were torched, highways blocked, and cartel gunmen took to the streets.
In tourist spots like Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara, travelers witnessed “dodging burning buses” and hunkering down in hotels as flights were delayed or cancelled.
The U.S. State Department told Americans in parts of Jalisco and other affected states to seek shelter and remain in residences or hotels.
Flights to and from Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara were halted.
Tourists stranded.
Canada said more than 26,000 Canadians were registered as being in Mexico as this is happening.
On top of that, the U.S. role in the El Mencho operation wasn’t zero.
The White House publicly praised the operation and confirmed intel support.
As I write this, the March 31 strike is trading around the high‑teens — roughly 16–19% implied odds. Or about a 5x payout if it hits.
This market resolves “Yes” only if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti‑cartel operation on Mexican soil by March 31, 2026, 11:59 p.m. ET.
Again, just because helped find him, doesn’t mean that’s enough. Meaning, even if we help with intel getting Mexico back to operational, it still won’t be enough.
Truth be told, historically, the U.S. hasn’t responded to cartel‑boss kills and ensuing riots by openly sending its own troops into Mexico.
The pattern has been intel, training, law‑enforcement cooperation, and sanctions.
In 2009 Mexican marines led the raid that killed Arturo Beltrán Leyva; U.S. role was intelligence, equipment, and training support.
Then “El Chapo” Guzmán. Captured in 2014, then recaptured in 2016.
Mexican marines and federal police conducted the operations; U.S. agencies provided intel and planning help, then took custody via extradition.
But no acknowledged U.S. combat presence on Mexican streets.
Other Calderón‑era takedowns (Lazcano, Tony Tormenta, etc.)
Same pattern.
Mexican marines or army do the raids.
Heavily backed by U.S. training and technology.
But the shooting on Mexican soil is done by Mexicans.
So for this market to hit Yes by March 31, you need something unprecedented to happen.
But something unprecedented could happen…
At one point, Trump really DID want to wage war on the cartels…
And he kinda has, right?
Since last year, the U.S. has carried out dozens of military strikes on alleged drug‑smuggling boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific.
However, and this is a big however, the situation in Mexico is different from the boat strikes.
The boat strikes are U.S. forces acting in international or foreign waters.
Which Washington justifies under self‑defense and terrorism framing (controversial, but that’s the legal story).
Inside Mexico is a totally different story.
The El Mencho kill was a Mexican military operation with U.S. intel support.
Not U.S. Marines raiding Jalisco; that preserves formal Mexican sovereignty even though U.S. fingerprints are all over targeting and strategy.
So while Trump is the “unprecedented exception” in how far he’s pushed the military against cartels— designations, boat strikes, WMD framing, drone recon…
He still hasn’t openly sent U.S. ground combat units into Mexico to fight cartels head-on. At least not yet.
Don’t Miss These Events!
___________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER:
The Content is not intended to provide, and does not constitute, financial, investment, trading, tax, legal, or any other form of professional advice. It is not a recommendation, suggestion, solicitation, or offer to buy, sell, trade, or hold any securities, event contracts, derivatives, cryptocurrencies, or other financial instruments on platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, or any other prediction market.
Prediction Market Edge believes the Content is reliable but makes no representations or warranties as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or suitability for any purpose. The Content is subject to change without notice, and Prediction Market Edge assumes no duty or obligation to update it.
Trading in prediction markets involves significant risk of loss, including the potential loss of your entire investment. Past performance (including any highlighted “wins” or gains) is not indicative of future results. Markets are volatile, influenced by news, liquidity, resolution rules, and other factors, and individual results will vary. Subscribers and readers should conduct their own independent research, consider their financial situation, risk tolerance, and objectives, and consult qualified professionals before making any trading or investment decisions.
Prediction Market Edge is not responsible for any third-party information, market data, platform rules, or services referenced herein, including but not limited to Polymarket, Kalshi, or other exchanges. Use of the Content is at your own risk.
By subscribing to or accessing this Newsletter or related materials, you agree that Prediction Market Edge and its affiliates shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or other damages arising from your use of the Content.
For important additional information, please review our full Terms of Service, Privacy Policy, and any Subscription Agreement (available on predictionmarketedge.com).