President Trump delivers the State of the Union in five days.

It’s going down Tuesday, February 24, 2026 at 9 PM ET, and prediction markets have created a fascinating puzzle:

Who will actually be in the House chamber?

At least it’s in person, and vocal.

Fun fact, back in the day, Thomas Jefferson decided this felt too much like a monarch’s throne speech and for for more than 100 years, presidents sent the “Annual Message” in writing. Not in person.

That was from 1801–1912.

Until Woodrow Wilson revived the in‑person spoken address on December 2, 1913, giving the first live speech to Congress since John Adams.

That’s basically the first “vocal SOTU” in the way we experience it now: president physically in the chamber, reading the speech to a packed room for political effect.

Back to prediction markets, as of last night, volume was hovering around $1,260,000.

But the mispricings are real.

So understanding how SOTU attendance actually works reveals where the market is trading vibes instead of structure could give us the edge we really need.

First of all, typical attendees are:

If you're elected leadership or administration, you're very likely there.

If you're a judge or random VIP, it's idiosyncratic.

But Supreme Court justices do not always attend.

There's no rule requiring it.

From the 1960s–1980, about 84% of justices showed up.

But since 2000, that rate has dropped to roughly one‑third.

Some conservatives have called the event a “childish spectacle” and refuse to attend on principle.

At least 12 Democratic lawmakers are boycotting Trump's address, with several attending a counter-rally dubbed the "People's State of the Union" on the National Mall instead.

The reason this sticks out is because even with the boycott announcements, Democrats are priced as coin flips?

Looks like they're more likely to skip than baseline would suggest.

Senate party leaders always show unless there's a health crisis.

Even in hyper-polarized years, McConnell attends because it's part of the job.

He's the Senate Majority Leader.

But have you seen him lately?

He just left the hospital the other day.

Can he be in a room standing and sitting and clapping for 3 hours?

I’m not being ignorant it’s a genuine questions considering the strike’s at 70%.

First Family attendance is usually high, especially adult children around the political operation.

Coin flip pricing treats her like a random VIP instead of "daughter of the president."

She’s at 51%.

The market prices him like "longshot celebrity cameo."

But let’s be real. He could be getting us closer to Mars.

Sure, he's a close Trump ally and symbol for tech/"America First industry."

But it’s still a guess, Musk is eccentric, but 26%?

23-year-old YouTuber priced same as senators and First Family.

Sure, not a policymaker. But his fame and ties to controversy are huge.

(Somali daycare fraud claims, voter roll videos).

This isn’t a trading newsletter, and typical picks aren’t shared in here but

Nick in the 50% range looks underpriced.

Trump rewards loyalty publicly, Shirley's investigative work fits the narrative, and the symbolism of elevating a young conservative media figure plays well.

Probably closer to 65-70%.

I don’t even know where to start with this one.

I think she really does mean to make a difference.

And she probably will.

Will she be at the SOTU?

We’ll see.

Judy Shelton has been meeting with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, appearing on TV, and involved in Fed-reform debates.

But she currently holds no formal post and is still more of an outside intellectual/surrogate.

Unless she's formally brought into the administration or Fed structure before the speech, her structural base rate looks low.

Trump's pick to replace Powell as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is a different story.

He's a regular at Mar-a-Lago, key advisor, and a central figure in the new Fed regime. Al Green and Ilhan Omar are in 50% range, both progressive Democrats likely attending the boycott counter-rally, not Trump's speech. So we’ll see.

So far it looks like at least 12 Democrats are boycotting, attending the "People's State of the Union" counter-rally instead.

There’s more names list and you can see them all here. We’re not going to go over ALL the names. But check them out.

As you know with Trump the optics are huge.

And in typical Trump-fashion he’ll likely pulls a couple rabbits out of his hat on Tuesday.

I mean, Dana White’s listed as a strike.

Check out the list here.

Could be a star studded event on Tuesday.

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