SpaceX has 5 launches completed and 7 scheduled for the rest of February.

12. Wrap it up, right?

Technically, if you want to add the “completed” launches and “scheduled” launches here you should be good to go, right?

Not so fast.

If every scheduled launch goes off without a scrub, they land (no pun intended) at exactly 12 total.

But you’d need one more.

Markets are pricing "Above 12" at 85% YES (15¢ NO), not 100%.

Which means traders are betting SpaceX will add at least one unscheduled mission in the final 12 days while executing flawlessly on the existing manifest.

No issues, no technical hiccups, no weather disruptions.

So, is that 85% confidence justified, or is it cutting it close? 

So far SpaceX completed 5 launches.

Scheduled (visible on SpaceX site): 7 launches

Total if all complete: 12 launches
Days remaining: 12

The math:

SpaceX launches from three different sites with completely independent weather systems.

Each site has different weather patterns:

A Florida Starlink and a Vandenberg Starlink can be scheduled on the same day, but each faces entirely different weather constraints.

Blue-sky perfection in Florida means nothing if a Pacific storm hits Vandenberg.

Launch weather rules (how scrubs actually happen):

With 7 launches across two sites (4 Florida, 3 California) in 10 days, you're trusting that all weather windows align perfectly.

Kalshi traders are talking about weather and its potential impacts.

"Look at the Vandenberg weather forecast, rain Sunday through Thursday."
"Same with Canaveral for Sunday and Monday."
"Not if they can't do the drone ship off Vandy due to high seas."

Point is, SpaceX needs calm seas to land boosters on drone ships.

High seas off Vandenberg means mission is scrubbed entirely.

So if weather scrubs just 1 mission, SpaceX drops from 12 scheduled to 11 scheduled…

And leaves traders praying for last minute additions.

Sidebar: If you’d like to watch the launches Next Spaceflight is a fun site to do so…(not a sponsor).

Sure, SpaceX could add launches.

The entire trade for "Above 12" at 85%.

But if they do, as one user said:

"They usually add launches only a couple weeks in advance. Vandenberg and Canaveral each launch about 2 Starlink missions per week."

Even sooner than that though: Public launch calendars like RocketLaunch.live and RocketLaunch.org are updated continuously, so you can see Starlink missions having their target date, time, and even day move around repeatedly, with “Last update” stamps 1–3 days before launch.

Incredible times we’re living in, right?

SpaceX now operates at such volume that we're debating whether they'll squeeze in one more Starlink in the final week of February.

Incredible.

Zooming out…

Above 10 at 96% looks solid. Would need 2+ to get to the other side.

Remember, you need to beat 12, not hit 12.

The visible manifest shows exactly 12 launches for the month of February.

The *shortest* month of the year.

Good luck this week.

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