Ali Khamenei hasn't been seen in public and his son is running day-to-day operations.

Wouldn’t this mean he’s functionally out already?

. 

According to Iran International, cited by Holco on Kalshi, "Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has moved into a special underground shelter in Tehran after senior military and security officials assessed an increased risk of a potential US attack. The facility is described as a fortified site with interconnected tunnels… The information also indicates that Masoud Khamenei, the supreme leader's third son, has taken over management of day-to-day activities.”

One trader, messy ice, said, "if he went into hiding and his son is running the show. this should resolve to yes!!!!!"

Perhaps.

But it hasn't. The prediction market lives on.

Holco has been tracking US military movements obsessively. Here's what he posted on January 23rd:

He says, "Updated Aircraft and Ship Buildup for Iran Strikes…

US Air Force:

US Navy:

RAF (United Kingdom):

Israel Air Force:

Then we have this…

After we just pulled off one of the stealthest raids in military history ripping Nicolás Maduro from power who’s say we won’t do that elsewhere?

The parallels are uncanny!

Fight4USA posted: "Maduro was the first. Khamenei will be the second."

But Holco, who's been one of the most detailed analysts on this market, thinks it's not that simple.

When asked why he's betting on April instead of March, he explained:

"2 reasons. 1. khamenei is likely hiding in a bunker complex inside the mountains just outside of Tehran. He's likely using lessons learned from the Maduro raid to prevent a similar situation. these mountain complexes are vast and deep which will likely take time to root him out. 2. we may destroy every regime target and all of their infrastructure, but it might take time to get Khamenei. I'm betting on background knowledge of his habits, infrastructure, and shelter patterns."

Here's where the rules get weird. And where you as prediction market traders gotta read the rules.

If Khamenei leaves office solely because he died, the market doesn't resolve to YES.

Instead, according to Kalshi's rules: "the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death)."

While many are confused by this, I have a feeling they have to word things this way as to avoid being salacious in their events and framing.

Keep in mind, one of the reasons Kalshi is able to function in the USA is because they’ve avoided aggressive, scandalous, salaciously worded events.

Holco posted on January 25th: "🚨🇮🇷 Iran International: Number of dead according to an internal Iranian document: more than 36,000. New York Times: Khamenei ordered the Supreme National Security Council to suppress the January 9 protesters 'by all necessary means - show zero mercy.'"

Skylyte wrote: "Estimates are now 50,000-80,000 dead. Each additional hour our military just sits and waits is a great tragedy."

Iranian protesters on X are calling for regime change. tahoorahashemi posted: "Khamenei and his regime are war criminals. We demand regime change. Our only legitimate representative and leader is Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi. #KingRezaPahlavi #IranMassacre"

Seyyed Zia echoed: "He is not only a war criminal but an occupier of our land. We, in the heart of Iran, have risen by the command of Prince @PahlaviReza to end this hub of terror. It is time for the world to stop Khamenei and his IRGC once and for all."

But this isn't Venezuela. It’s Iran.

And it’s reported they have regional proxies that can retaliate.

Bature posted a warning from Lebanon: "The Deputy Chairman of the Supreme Shia Islamic Council in Lebanon, Sheikh Ali Al-Khatib: We warn of the danger of the foolishness that the United States might commit if it harms the great leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei..."

Grok summarized the threats: "Yes, statements from Hezbollah's Naim Qassem warn that attacking Khamenei would destabilize the region and prompt responses. Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq threatened 'total war' if Iran is targeted. Houthis hinted at Red Sea attacks. Analysts highlight risks of multi-front escalation."

Juan Manuel Ríos P, posting in Spanish, noted: "According to various sources, Iran appears to have activated its defense and response plan in anticipation of a US attack. Khamenei has designated successors in case he falls in an attack, while new military commanders have also been appointed, anticipating the current one's [fall]."

“Designated successors” seems like he’s checking out.

Look, the guys in a bunker, his son is running day-to-day operations.

Whenever the leader of a country is hiding in a bunker it never ends well.

Remember where they found Sadam Hussein?

As of last night (the time I’m writing this) the market currently prices this at:

That's a coin flip over the next eight months.

After all this it really looks like things could be reshaping by March.

Israel Channel 13 reported, per Holco: "Israel assesses that the US will attack Iran and that we are 'entering a key week'.

In a meeting with CENTCOM Commander Brad Cooper, IDF officials demanded that any strike include hits on Iran's surface-to-surface missile systems and government institutions."

The USS Abraham Lincoln is offshore. The buildup looks complete. CENTCOM Commander Brad Cooper just landed in Israel.

Things are heating up!

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