Before we start, understand the prediction markets have $3.8 million in volume on whether the U.S. government will confirm that aliens exist before January 1, 2027.  

The spirit of this newsletter is no matter the prediction market, we’ll see if we can find a trade in it…

And thanks to breaking news, there might be.

The odds spiked whether the White House will confirm aliens exist from 11% to 24% in a matter of days.

So: Is this spike a blip or is it the beginning? Or are traders hoping "releasing classified files" coincides with "confirming extraterrestrial life exists"?

Let’s go.

All that has to happen for the market to resolve to YES if the President, any Cabinet member, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any U.S. federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before January 1, 2027.

The key word: definitively.

Not "we found something weird we can't explain."

This isn't "statistically, aliens probably exist somewhere in the universe."

But more like, "we have recovered alien technology", or "we have evidence of extraterrestrial" something or other.

Last night President Trump ordered the government to release classified files on aliens, UFOs, extraterrestrial life, and unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs).

Prediction markets jumped from 11% → 24% in two days.

Last night it almost hit 30%

This followed comments by former President Obama where he said "aliens are real" on a podcast.

Obama said "aliens are real", then immediately clarified that this was a statistical argument about life in the universe—not evidence of contact.

He explicitly said he saw no evidence of alien visitation while in office.

But that’s kind of been the official line for decades.

Harry Truman was president when the 1947 "flying saucer" wave and Roswell incident kicked off the modern UFO era.

He had aides brief him on the strange reports but never claimed aliens.

He ordered the Air Force to systematize investigations, leading to early projects like Sign and Grudge—precursors to Project Blue Book—embedding UFOs in postwar White House national security thinking.

Jimmy Carter reported a UFO he saw in Georgia in 1969, filing a formal report with the International UFO Bureau years before he became president.

And when talking to Mikhail Gorbachev, Ronald Reagan used to say that an attack “from outer space” would instantly unite the U.S. and USSR.

Yet, every investigation since has ended the same way: mostly explained, some unexplained. BUT NO EVIDENCE OF ALIENS.

That could be the phrase that pays.

The comments are all over the place.

But the gist is this looks like classic hype, jumping on hopium, watching the uninformed confirmation bias their way to a loss.

Look, there might be an opportunity from 20% - 50% but getting a Yes resolution out of this one might be harder than we think.

We have to ask, why is this news breaking now? Why is this happening in the news cycle right now?

Sure, in 2026, they might actually do it.

Fine, life exists extraterrestially. Wouldn’t be surprised.

And the new could come out that it’s true, but the market resolves YES only if officials "definitively state that extraterrestrial life or technology exists."

But they don’t clearly define what qualifies.

What actually counts as "extraterrestrial life or technology"?

Does it include:

Or does it require:

The rules simply don't say.

What the rules do say is "Extraterrestrial life" means ANY life not from Earth.

Under that interpretation, microbial discovery on Mars would count, right?

And that's actually much more plausible in a 10-month window than spacecraft disclosure.

Some traders are betting on "alien UFO confirmation."

Others might be betting on "any extraterrestrial life announcement."

The rules don't distinguish.

That ambiguity creates two completely different opportunities.

Trump declassifies documents with previous definitive statements from officials—memos saying "we have recovered non-human technology" or "extraterrestrial craft are in U.S. possession."

That would probably look somethign like documents confirming the Nimitz Tic Tac (2004 Navy pilots describing a capsule-shaped object with no visible propulsion), the USS Omaha spherical UAP (2019 infrared footage showing an object dropping into the ocean with no wreckage), or the famous FLIR, GIMBAL, and GO FAST videos officially released by the Pentagon in 2020.

Former Navy personnel argue these show "transmedium" capability—air to sea with no splash. Like, flying ships that fly into the water without barely making a splash.

But when AARO (All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office) reviewed Navy UAP cases, they concluded no confirmed evidence of extraterrestrial origin.

Trump or Cabinet members make definitive statements when asked about the declassified files: "Yes, we have evidence of extraterrestrial technology."

That’d be the easiest, right?

Trump declassifies AAWSAP/AATIP files (DIA's black-budget programs studying Skinwalker Ranch and "unconventional aerospace threats") and confirms it's real.

Even Jimmy Carter, who personally reported a UFO in 1969 and promised disclosure during his 1976 campaign—couldn't force it once in office.

Now, NASA on the other hand…

NASA's Perseverance finds biosignatures on Mars or Europa Clipper detects life signs.

Then annouce: "We have confirmed extraterrestrial life."

Which feels entirely more plausible than UFO disclosure in 10 months.

Again, not saying they do or do not exist, just trying to make a trade here…

In fact, NASA has boots‑on‑wheels on one alien world right now. Mars.

Those rovers are literally drilling ancient lakebeds for fossils of past life.

The real sci‑fi action is coming from the ocean worlds: Europa, Enceladus, and Titan are all in NASA’s crosshairs as places where an ice plume or hydrocarbon dune could quietly hide something alive.

The point is, you don’t need to believe in alien spacecraft for this market to hit. NASA finding bacteria on Mars resolves to YES just like the Pentagon confirming UFOs.

One of those is more likely than the other. 👽

Oh, and one last thing…

Happy Friday everyone.

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