Before we begin, first some housekeeping:

Two things. First, Kalshi is going viral for the way they communicated the rules about the outing of Iran’s former, late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Many people bought Yes contracts—Khamenei would be out as Supreme Leader— moments after the news of Khamenei’s death broke.

As you could imagine, they made zero dollars because the rules clearly stated that death was not a condition for an “outing”.

Hey, don’t look at me, I don’t make the rules.

But if you had read Prediction Market Edge on January 27th, you’ll remember we talked about the awkwardly worded ruleset, and how to position around it.

Ff you placed a trade with that in mind and got out before the debacle, with a profit, then congratulation.

Below is my trade.

You can read January’s post here.

The second thing is this: please do this poll.

Prediction Market Edge is growing fast.

Big things are coming so your feedback will improve your experience.

On to today’s regularly scheduled programming…

Sorry Texas, but this doesn’t look good.

Unless you’re a democrat in Texas in which case this might be the best thing you’ll read this week.

Within 7 days the odds more democrats will show up for the Texas Senate primary went from 40% to 70%.

Texas is one of the reddest states in America.

Republicans have dominated its politics for three decades.

In 2024, GOP primary turnout crushed Democratic turnout by a margin of 2.3 million to 975,000. It wasn't close.

But today, it’s another story.

New data like we’ve never seen before.

The Early Vote Data

Through the final days of early voting, Democratic primary ballots in Texas were running ahead of Republican ballots statewide.

Roughly 665,000 Democratic votes versus 594,000 Republican votes.

Multiple outlets tracking the data had Democrats at approximately 53% of early ballots cast versus 47% Republican.

This is in county-level data across the major metros. Like Bexar County, Travis County…

The Texas Tribune and other outlets have been explicit about what's driving it: Democratic primary voters are showing up in numbers that are fueling early turnout records.

How is this happening…

Jasmine Crockett.

The high-profile Democratic Senate primary between Crockett and Steve Talarico has poured money, media attention, and grassroots energy into the Texas Democratic base in a way that hasn't happened in years.

The Historical Context

Republicans have almost always outvoted Democrats in Texas statewide primaries.
In 2018 — the Beto–Cruz cycle, peak “blue wave” hype — Republicans still cast 1.5 million primary votes versus just over 1 million for Democrats.

In 2022, the gap widened again. Analysts covering multiple cycles have noted “once again, Republicans outvoted Democrats in the primaries” as a near‑predictable fact of Texas political life.

But recently something changed.

In late January, Democrat Taylor Rehmet flipped a Texas state Senate seat in Tarrant County — a district Trump won by 17 points in 2024 — by 14 points. It drew national attention including from Trump himself, and when it was over, Republican Lt. Governor Dan Patrick called it "a wake-up call."

The losing Republican said it plainly on election night: "The Democrats were energized. Too many Republicans stayed home."

That result was a warning shot.

The Tarrant County Democratic chair called it "the future, and it's here."
Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since 1994, and a hot primary has broken their way before (2008) without flipping the state in November.

Which is exactly why 2026 early vote data is turning heads. Democratic ballots are running ahead statewide. 665,000 Democratic votes versus 594,000 Republican.

Analysts say it’s "uncharacteristic."

The last time Texas Democrats showed up like this in a primary was 2008 — Obama versus Clinton — when Democratic primary turnout roughly doubled Republican.

And on the last day of early voting, Kamala Harris recorded a robocall endorsing Crockett — the first time Harris has weighed in on a Senate primary since 2024 — explicitly saying "it's time to turn Texas blue."

For a race already drawing national attention, that's gasoline on a fire two days before Election Day..

The Trade

When this market opened on February 21st it was sitting around 45%.

Ten days later it is now 72%.

The market is moving almost daily.

But that doesn’t mean Democrats will certainly outnumber Republicans in the primary when all votes are counted.

And it doesn’t mean Texas has a better shot at turning blue.

Early voting structurally skews Democratic — Republican voters disproportionately show up on Election Day itself, so some reversion toward parity is the base case, not an upset.

If GOP turnout spikes on the day, it could narrow the margin significantly or flip it entirely.

The resolution rule is clean: total Democratic Senate primary votes minus total Republican Senate primary votes above zero equals Yes. No interpretation, no subjectivity. The State of Texas publishes the numbers Tuesday night.

At 72 cents, you're betting the early vote cushion — tens of thousands of ballots — holds when Election Day votes are added. Whether it does tells you something about Texas that goes well beyond this single market.

You’re no longer getting paid for spotting the story early; you’re getting paid for judging whether the enthusiasm gap survives Election Day.

A sustained Democratic edge would signal a real enthusiasm shift in a state where Republicans almost always dominate primaries; a full GOP catch‑up would say 2026 still looks a lot like the old Texas.

Primary day is Tuesday, March 3rd. We’ll see.

Happy Monday,

Want to know who’s trading $10,000, $25,000, $50,000, $100,000 or more? Try Prediction Market Alpha’s live whale feed.

Just flip the setting, sit back and watch whale trades come across your screen in REAL TIME. Free to sign up.

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