I'm writing this Sunday night as NYC is bracing for what officials are calling a "blockbuster blizzard".

Up to 28 inches of snow could hit Monday, potentially one of the top 10 worst storms in city history. 

Prediction markets have $1.46 million in volume on the line on how much snow NYC gets this month.

But what no one is talking about is this:

NYC has only received roughly 1.2 inches of snow in February thus far. 

Meaning, today’s storm could dump 14-28 inches in the next 24 hours.

Turning a quiet, below-average February into a potentially historic month, and making thousands of traders richer if they positioned themselves accordingly.

February 2026 was tracking well below the ~10-inch monthly average and shaping up to be one of the quieter months in recent memory.

But right now, that’s changing…

NYC Emergency Management Commissioner Zach Iscol told reporters Sunday afternoon: "New York has not faced a storm of this scale in the last decade."

He's calling it potentially one of the top 10 worst storms in Big Apple history.

City officials expect 14 inches across the boroughs, with some areas seeing double that.

AccuWeather meteorologists are using phrases like "extreme snowstorm impacts people in the Northeast have seen in years."

Forecast models cluster around 13-17 inches as central guidance, with the National Weather Service's blizzard warnings citing a range of 16-24 inches depending on banding and storm track.

The New York Post:

It’s apparently getting so bad the city activated emergency snow shoveler hiring, complete with multiple forms of ID required and everything.

I’m not in NYC, so I can’t track it in person.

But if you want to track it beyond refreshing weather apps, Windy or Ventusky are pretty good for comparing model scenarios in real-time (watching if ECMWF and GFS converge or diverge on the 14-28 inch range).

Below is a snapshot of what NYC could look like from Ventusky.

Pivotal Weather (never used it) is apparently good for drilling into HRRR hourly updates.

Another one, and this won’t be useful for today, but another time, LightningMaps.org plots live lightning strikes.

What does this. have to do with trading weather in the prediction markets?

Everything.

Maybe you want to position early, or wait… maybe you don’t want to trade this one at all. Don’t blame you.

Right now, (again, writing this Sunday night) there’s about 80% chance snow will exceed 14 inches and 60% chance it does NOT exceed 20 inches.

Phrasing it that way kinda sheds a new light on the New York Posts, “28 inches!” scare. Doesn’t it?

Look at it this way.

Historically, snowfall in February is about 10 inches.

Since 1900, February has topped 20 inches of snow in Central Park only in a handful of years.

From the NWS monthly snowfall table for Central Park, Februaries with more than 20 inches since 1900 are:

8.7% of Februaries since 1900 have exceeded 20 inches of snow in Central Park.

Roughly about 1 out of every 11–12 years on average.

Are we about due? Is it gamblers fallacy to think we’re about due?

Or is it statistics?

I mean, it’s certainly is possible…

"Above 15 inches" at 88% seems like a no-brainer if this storm actually hits.

But that’s a decent amount of risk for a 12% gain.

I’m a perpetual weather doubter so honestly I’m not going to be any help with this.

Take a look at this website, ventusky.com. It’s really cool.

You might have to zoom in, but by 8AM Monday, February 23rd it expects to be 10 inches.

This newsletter issue will go out at 7:45 AM so you can check right now how accurate it is.

"Above 20 inches" at 38% is the interesting one.

Still a 60% chance the weather does something it only does an average of eleven years.

Which, the last time NYC broke 20 inches was, well… 12 years ago so to be honest with you…

Maybe NYC is due?

I have no stake in this one and I’m not touching the "Above 25 inches" strike.

But hey, what if the storm tracks offshore?

What if wind changes direction?

What if temperature increase a few degrees and rain dilutes snow accumulation?

What are the chances weather-people are wrong?

I mean, the last people we expect to get anything wrong is the weather forecasters, right?

Good luck this week. Happy Monday.

-PME

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