Lowe's reports Q4 FY2025 earnings tomorrow morning, and the prediction market on Polymarket is sitting at 67% in favor of a beat.

While the number climbed steadily over the past week it did take a brief dip to the mid 50s last week.

We’ll get in to that in a second.

The Street is expecting Lowe's to print roughly $1.94–$1.95 in adjusted EPS on about $20.3 billion in revenue.

The expectation is still for year-over-year growth.

The case for a beat is this…

Lowe's has a killer track record.

The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of its last four reported quarters, and the beats have been consistent. Steady grind.

In Q3 2025, Lowe's posted an EPS of $3.06 against a $2.97 estimate. Roughly a 3% beat.

Q2 came in at $4.33 versus $4.24. 2% beat.

Q1 was about a 1% beat.

Sure, it’s not blowing the doors off; but it’s the slow, reliable growth that’s shows consistency.

All Lowe’s has to do to resolve this prediction to Yes is to report EPS greater than $1.90.

Gordon Haskett upgraded LOW from Hold to Buy in January, citing the company's Pro-customer push, digital improvements, and operational efficiency as the core of their thesis.

Barclays had already moved Lowe’s to Overweight, and just last week, Citi — while keeping a Neutral rating — raised its price target from $250 to $285. A 14% jump.

All good news, right? Must be since Glenview acquired 14,764 shares of Lowe’s.

They’re crushing the ecom space, last earnings report showed roughly 6% online comp growth and double-digit app traffic increases.

They’re doing the AI thing, management has been layering in AI across search, product recommendations, and demand planning, and analysts are treating that as a genuine efficiency driver.

And essentially executing on all parts of their "Total Home" strategy — driving Pro penetration, accelerating online, expanding services, building loyalty, and increasing store productivity.

But that doesn’t mean it’s a slam dunk…

Here's where it gets more complicated.

Last week Lowe’s announced laying off roughly 600 corporate and support roles “to focus on store employees”.

Mostly in digital, analytics, and product roles, announced in mid-February and framed as a reallocation toward store-facing staff.

That's a reasonable explanation, but it's hard to ignore what it looks like.

I mean, do they have to cut corporate headcount when demand is accelerating?

Or are they forced to do it because the revenue environment is flatter than ever and they have to cut costs to save the quarter?

And if they do “save the quarter”, will it be enough for a $1.90 beat?

We’ll see. No official position here but if you think there’s an opportunity either way good luck.

In less than 24 hours from now, we'll have our answer.

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