It’s a big one. Walmart reports Q4 FY2026 earnings tomorrow, February 19, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET.

It’s the first earnings call under Walmart’s new CEO, John Furner, who took over February 1st after Doug McMillon retired on January 31st.

While (as of this writing) prediction markets are pricing “Automation” at 96%, “OpenAI” at 60%, and “SNAP” at just 21%, I went through Walmart’s most recent earnings transcript word-by-word plus a stack of news to see what could show up on Thursday’s call.

CEO John Furner (formerly CEO of Walmart U.S.) and CFO John David Rainey are set to host the call.

Besides the “favorites” (those are obvious) today we’re going to do something different and stick to talking about the underdog strikes.

One word of caution though, if you're thinking about trading this event, remember these have very little liquidity.

As of early this week there's only $21,924 in volume.

But as they say in retail, business as usual.

Let’s go…

First, the mentions.

Here’s s snapshot of the mention strikes…

Former CEO Doug McMillion talked about "Physical Automation" three times in the supply chain.

John David (CFO) emphasized that "more than 50% of our E-commerce fulfillment center volume is now automated," driving lower shipping costs and better unit productivity. 

Walmart's been investing heavily in automated distribution centers for years.

The third mention: "Supply Chain Automation" was said as an efficiency enabler.

This isn't new new though. 

The automation narrative shows up every quarter because it's central to how they're lowering delivery costs while scaling e-commerce.

In a minute you’ll see just how big delivery is to Walmart’s success.

Besides, who isn’t automating nowadays? 

No wonder it’s sitting at high 90s.

Last quarter Tariff was mentioned 7 times. 

John David referenced "higher costs from tariffs" when discussing inventory levels.

Doug praised the team for managing through tariffs and mentioned relief on items "not grown in the United States." 

Analysts asked multiple tariff questions (Seth Sigman, Christopher Horvers), and management responded each time.

Tariffs dominated 2025.  

Walmart raised guidance in April "on the heels of the tariff announcements" while saying they'd "play offense" and gain share despite headwinds.

The story all year has been: tariffs are real, but Walmart's managing them better than competitors.

92% seems high.

But there again, we’re talking about the world’s largest retailer.

Doug announced the partnership in Q3: "Our recent announcement with OpenAI is an example. This new partnership will allow customers and members to purchase items from Walmart and Sam's Club directly through ChatGPT."

The second mention: Walmart's rolling out "OpenAI Certifications" to help associates build AI skills.

Reddit loved it, saying the singularity is here.

Probably is.

But since then, there hasn’t been much Walmart-OpenAI specific news in the last 90 days. 

The singularity, in terms of an OpenAI-Walmart partnership might be here. 

But that doesn’t mean it’s a guaranteed mentioned on tomorrow’s call. 

John Furner highlighted Onepay during Q3: "OnePay cash rewards credit card" as a new Walmart+ benefit driving membership growth. 

John David noted it contributed to "overall Q3 net adds our strongest on record."

At the time of this writing it’s sitting at 80%.

Will the momentum continue? 

Perhaps.

While there hasn’t been any big payments rebrand, or headlines, pricing at ±80% is certainly promising.

SNAP was mentioned 1 time last quarter. By an analyst.

Christopher Horvers asked: "To what extent did the Port Strike and SNAP impact the trend?"

John Furner's response never mentioned SNAP.

He talked about pricing strategy, unit growth, and turkey prices instead.

It’s also interesting to note that policy headlines in late 2025 highlighted potential pauses in SNAP benefits during shutdown scenarios and the risk of Walmart losing up to $2B if benefits "go dark." 

Walmart also re-tuned parts of its SNAP/EBT fee and basket rules for grocery pickup and delivery in 2025.

Management is very aware this is a sensitive lever for low-income traffic.

If investors ask about low-income consumer pressure or government shutdown risk, SNAP could surface again.

Wait, isn’t the government shut down right now?

All zero mentions on last quarter’s call. 

Walmart positioned health and pharmacy as part of its traffic strategy all year, but there's been no big prescription-specific event in 90 days (no major PBM deal, no GLP-1 narrative like CVS).

However, and this doesn’t mean something could happen on the call, but with the recent drama at CVS, maybe there's a shot down the road.

Like, can you imagine Walmart buying CVS?

On a pure dollar size, a Walmart acquisition of CVS at today’s valuations would be bigger than the Netflix-Warner Bros. bid and bigger than Paramount’s current Warner Bros. bid by the order of tens of billions of dollars.

Anyway, back to tomorrow’s call, leadership typically says "pharmacy" or "health & wellness" instead naming names.

Management and analysts constantly circle around competitors (dollar stores, Amazon), but they phrase it as "share gains" or "value proposition" rather than the word "competition”.

Brick and mortar as a concept is talked, (store productivity, curbside, omnichannel), but they usually say "stores," "clubs," or even "omnichannel"—not the literal phrase "brick and mortar."

Omnichannel was mentioned on the last call. No surprise it was sitting at 85%.

Skip is interesting. 

Canada's grocery delivery service Skip teamed up with Walmart last quarter.

Delivery is everywhere in Walmart's narrative now. 

Delivery was mentioned 17+ times on the Q3 call.

Not as a service, but as a moat. 

Doug emphasized that 35% of digital orders arrive in under 3 hours, with the fastest-growing channel being sub-1-hour delivery. 

Digital sales now account for more than 50% of Walmart’s China revenue.

In China, 80% of orders arrive in under an hour.

At Sam's Club, delivery grew triple digits for the fourth consecutive quarter.

Delivery is arguably the #1 driver of Walmart+ membership growth. 

John Furner said delivery speed and accuracy are "highly correlated" to member satisfaction. 

The entire e-commerce strategy hinges on speed: sub-3-hour, sub-1-hour, and in China, sub-10-minutes at peak.

So Skip could get a passing mention as a Canadian partnership.

Because delivery as a concept is so freakin’ huge. Around 55% of Canadians use it.

That’s a lot of Canadians.

But there again, trading on Skip is like trading DoorDash would get a mention. And there’s no DoorDash strike now is there.

Good luck tomorrow. 

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