DoorDash reports Q4 2025 earnings this week, and something strange is happening.

The stock's down 28% year-to-date, yet Wall Street analysts are forecasting robust order growth.

Meanwhile, Kalshi’s strikes repriced the past week, aggressively so, with low strikes now trade at 99% YES, but 860M+ still carries some risk.

DoorDash sits at 776M orders in Q3 2025 (a non-holiday quarter, pre-merger) with +21% YoY momentum.

The chart shows steady growth from 347M (Q3 2021) to 776M (Q3 2025).

To hit 870M would require 12.1% quarter-over-quarter growth and 27% year-over-year growth.

Recent quarters grew only 2-4% QoQ, so hitting 870M organically means tripling the normal pace.

Tall order?

Maybe…

It’d be easy to say that that’s out of the questions except the Deliveroo deal closed October 2. Yea, DoorDash bought ‘em—making Q4 the first full quarter where those orders could consolidate into DoorDash's reported total.

If Deliveroo's estimated ~70M orders per quarter, (and assuming those count), then 870M becomes pretty reasonable.

776M + modest organic growth + 65M = 870M+.

But we don't know if Kalshi will count them.

The rules state: "The metric must be explicitly reported by <company> in their earnings materials".

So the question isn't "will Kalshi count Deliveroo orders?" — the better question is "Will DoorDash report a consolidated Total Orders number that includes Deliveroo?"

Based on the hierarchy:

If DoorDash says "Total Orders: 870M" in their earnings release, Kalshi uses 870M. Done.

Sometimes, not all the times, whether intentional or not, the rules and situation permits some ambiguity.

If DoorDash says "Legacy orders: 810M, Deliveroo orders: 60M" and doesn't provide a consolidated "Total Orders" figure, then it doesn’t look like Kalshi would use 810M.

The bet is on DoorDash's reporting choice, not Kalshi's interpretation.

Strip out the M&A question entirely, and Wall Street's order forecasts still imply 850M+ is in play, yet Kalshi prices 850M-870M at 89-85% says YES like there's real tail risk.

📉 The Stock vs. The Business

DoorDash stock is down 28% YTD on margin concerns, not order volume concerns.

Traders see stock down and assume business struggling.

Except orders doesn’t equal stock price.

The stock can tank on integration worries while orders grow 20%+ YoY.

After Q3 earnings (776M orders, +21% YoY), the stock dropped despite pretty hard.

Sure, solid KPIs, but investors focused on margins, not volume.

Motley Fool had a nice write up on the what could happen next.

Basically saying how DoorDash dominates US food delivery market share (typically 60-65% of the market), has the largest order volume (776M in Q3 alone), and with the Deliveroo acquisition now operates across 45 global markets handling ~$90B in combined annual orders.

Even though they're the biggest player in the space by volume and reach, what does that mean to how many total orders they’ll report tomorrow?

This isn’t an investing letter.

It’s a prediction market letter.

850 million and maybe even 860 million might happen. They’re priced high for a reason.

But 870?

870 looks like it’d need incredible top-of-range organic growth plus some Deliveroo consolidation effect.

That’s a higher bar.

If you’re skeptical of breakout growth, 870 is the first strike where you’re not fading consensus, you’re fading acceleration.

But if Deliveroo is fully consolidated into a single reported “Total Orders” figure…

870 could clear mechanically.

And that’s where this stops being a growth call and becomes a disclosure call.

Now we’re trading on how DoorDash formats a PDF.
How they structure a headline number. What appears on page one of the earnings release.

The contract settles there. Could there be a dispute if there’s mass confusion.

Maybe. But there’s not a lot of volume in this market anyway.

If they segment legacy and acquired orders without presenting a consolidated total, the outcome could change. That’s the entire edge.

Tomorrow we find out.

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