Wendy's reports Q4 FY2025 earnings in about THIS MORNING at 8:30 AM EST.

While prediction markets are pricing "Project Fresh" at 95%, "App" at 91%, and "Baconator" at just 30%, I analyzed two consecutive quarters of Wendy's earnings transcripts word-by-word to see what Interim CEO Ken Cook actually talks about when reporting to investors.

The context matters: Wendy's stock sits near multi-year lows.

Ken took over as Interim CEO in July 2025, pulling double duty as CFO. In October, he launched Project Fresh, a multi-year brand and operations overhaul that's now the centerpiece of Wendy's entire turnaround story. The plan? Brand revitalization, system optimization (read: closing underperforming restaurants), operational excellence, and capital reallocation.

The results of my analysis? Some massive mispricings. Traders are betting 76% that Wendy's will mention 'Biggie' on this morning's call. Wendy's mentioned it 7 times in Q2 and just 2 times in Q3—a 71% decline

One of the outcome being there’s a chance the call won’t happen at all.

For historical context, let’s look at the Prediction Market Mention SuperMeter…

Let’s go…

In Q2 it didn't exist yet. Ken talked generically about "three key actions" but no branded initiative.

By Q3, everything changed. Ken announced in October 2025:

"We launched Project Fresh, a comprehensive turnaround plan to drive profitable growth and long-term value across our U.S. system."

Mentioned 15+ times. Four pillars: Brand Revitalization, Operational Excellence, System Optimization, Capital Allocation. This is now the frame for every strategic discussion—KPIs, CapEx, margins, unit growth. IR materials position it as the multi-year roadmap.

With the stock near multi-year lows heading into Q4, Ken needs to show progress.

Zero mentions of closing restaurants in Q2.

But pillar three of Project Fresh is called "System Optimization".

Which means if stores are underperforming, they’re gone.

Ken projected "mid-single-digit percentage of U.S. restaurants" (~300 units) would close, starting in Q4 2025 and continuing into 2026.

Mentioned 8+ times.

The goal: unlock franchisee capital, boost AUVs at nearby locations, strengthen customer experience.

Will he give an update on how many store closures there were this quarter?

Q2: Suzie Thuer (Chief Accounting Officer) mentioned Inflation twice in financial outlook: "Commodity inflation outlook for the year of approximately 4%, primarily reflecting continued inflation in beef prices."

Q3: Mentioned 3 times when discussing beef costs, labor inflation (~4%), and margin pressure.

With revenue under pressure and food/labor costs climbing, this is a natural focus area.

Ken avoids the word "tariff" (zero mentions across two quarters) but acknowledges beef, packaging, and equipment cost pressures through the umbrella of "inflation."

Seems like Inflation could get an honorable mention.

Have you ever been to a driver thru and the AI person pitches donating to charity or upselling you?

I think that’s what Ken means when he’s talking about:

"Our FreshAI platform is getting smarter and continues improving the drive-thru experience with unique menu recommendations... FreshAI is driving stronger sales."

It was Mentioned 3 times as a growth driver in Q2.

But in Q3 only 2 mentions.

Suzie referenced it when explaining company-operated restaurant outperformance. Management frames FreshAI—the Google-powered AI drive-thru assistant—as a differentiator on order accuracy, labor efficiency, and upsell.

Rolled from pilots in 2024 to nationwide scaling through 2025, now processing tens of thousands of orders daily.

Investors have even been invited to experience it at events.

App went from 2→1 mentions.

Ken discussed targeted app discounts in Q2: "Moving to a more focused and targeted discounting through the app."

But by Q3, just one passing reference.

Loyalty had one mention the past two quarters.

The context was how their loyalty sales grew 25% in the second quarter.

And apparently, I didn’t know this, but there are tens of millions loyalty members.

I picked up a free “free”, keychain frosty thing a couple years back that guaranteed me $1 frosty’s all season.

I didn’t use it though. Not once.

Point is I’m not sure if that made me a loyalty member.

How is fast-food “loyalty” measured anyway?

Is it sign-ups? emails? App downloads. there’s also apparently really good deals "inside the app”.

But I wouldn’t know.

Delivery went from 4→2 mentions. Suzie called out "strong third-party delivery growth" in Q2. By Q3, minimal discussion—just part of "digital mix."

"Frosty sales up over 30% year over year in the second quarter." - Ken Cook

He covered Girl Scouts Thin Mints collaboration, Frosty Swirls, Frosty Fusions.

Mentioned 6 times as a success story. I mean look at this thing:

Frosty and Baconator are core brand equities that anchor promotions and LTOs (flavored Frosty variants, premium burger deals), often cited as traffic/mix drivers.

By Q3, Frosty disappeared completely—zero mentions. No new Frosty news.

Some words are disappearing fast.

Biggie collapsed from 7 mentions to 2. Biggie has the chance to pull of an upset.

But it’s questionable.

App and Delivery faded from talking points to background mentions.

Ranch and Tariff never appeared at all, Ken uses "inflation" when discussing cost pressures instead.

But other words emerged: Project Fresh didn't exist in Q2, then dominated Q3 with 15+ mentions.

Closure—typically avoided—and he could give investors an update on “System Optimization”.

So we’ll see, does Ken stick to the Q3 script (Project Fresh, closures, system optimization) or reach back for Q2 standbys like Biggie and app-driven value?

The vocabulary shift between August and November was dramatic.

When I'm traveling and in the mood for fast food, I like Wendy's. The food’s good.

But only when traveling.

You know what they say, never eat fast food in your hometown.

Good luck today. Happy Friday.

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