We're now two for two wth the gas price events.
Last week marked another clean win making the case for "No" on prices above $2.830.
This week Kalshi has an opening at gas coming in above $2.855 at 65%. (I’m writing this Thursday night, it’s still going up.)
Today's AAA national average (Jan 22 evening): $2.850 — up a tick from yesterday ($2.833) and week-ago ($2.844), but still flat/slightly below month-ago ($2.855).
Trending Down
We're deep in a multi-month slide since November highs, back to early-2021 levels (inflation-adjusted, basically 1990s territory).
While there’s no obvious floor, don’t let it tempt you into thinking that a bounce is out of the question.
Besides…
Big Storm Coming
Headlines are screaming "gas prices up slightly" across the nation this week.
Florida up about 10 cents to $2.70, Tennessee hitting $2.65, Chattanooga jumping 8.5 cents to $2.42, Denver surging 16.6 cents, and Michigan climbing 15 cents.
State-by-state trackers and local reports show patchy increases over the past seven days, with a few spots seeing double-digit moves.
Crude oil remains range-bound in the high $50s to low $60s, demand stays seasonally soft with cold weather keeping drivers off the roads, and there's no sign of a broad reversal yet.
With the upcoming winter storm likely to reduce travel even further in many areas, any pre-weekend anticipation bump could easily fizzle by Sunday's AAA snapshot.
The Kalshi crowd is pricing in momentum toward the $2.855+ threshold and gaining speed.
The Kalshi crowd is pricing in real momentum toward the $2.855+ threshold and picking up speed fast.
After two straight weeks of bottoming action, plus scattered but consistent reports of regional pops (Florida +10¢, Denver +16.6¢, Chattanooga +8.5¢, Michigan +15¢) might be enough to push the average price back up.
Or it’s a classic Fugazi call by the weatherman. Misses the call, the bark is bigger than the bite. Storm never happens, prices drop, and the downtrend holds the line.
Be safe out there today.
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