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If you like drama in the prediction markets you’re going to love today’s read.
But if you don’t like drama then skip today’s issue and we’ll see you tomorrow.
The Kalshi market is pricing a 22-23% (was 27.5% this earlier this morning) chance (Yes shares) that Elon Musk (or entities like Tesla or SpaceX) picks up any stake above 0% in Ryanair before Jan 1, 2027.
An outright acquisition is super unlikely. The reason being EU rules cap non-EU ownership at 49% for airlines.
But the good news for us is the rules here are pretty broad: Any direct equity, voting shares, or even convertible rights count, aggregated across classes.
If we zoom out, it looks like the pricing (and the entire situation) has more of a “meme-vibe” than a trading opportunity.
The Feud: From WiFi Troll to Buyout Poll
This all ignited last week over Starlink.
Ryanair's been dragging its feet on installing Musk's satellite WiFi, with CEO Michael O'Leary claiming it'd add 2% to fuel costs from drag.
SpaceX execs say it’s more like 0.3%, or even 0.1% optimized.
Then X had an outage.
Ryanair trolled: "Perhaps you need Wi-Fi @elonmusk?"
After some name calling, Elon said, "Should I buy Ryan Air and put someone whose actual name is Ryan in charge?"
He polled his 220M+ X followers: 76.5% said yes.
And on and on and on…
Anyway, Elon loves dropping acquisition bombs as jokes, but sometimes they stick. Look…
In 2018: "Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured." (SEC drama ensued.)
In 2022: Floated buying Twitter after complaining about bots—then actually did for $44B.
Then remember that time he said he wanted to buy Coca-Cola to put cocaine back in it?
Sure, Elon could slap down $53B for a 50% premium buyout (barely 7% of his net worth) for RyanAir.
But again, EU aviation laws require majority EU ownership for operating licenses.
Even so, could he actually do anything with that percentage of ownership?
I Mean, Technically it COULD Happen…
Ryanair's profitable, massive fleet (600+ planes).
But it's old-school aviation. Not the futuristic EV/space/AI vibe Elon chases.
So why bother?
Well, beyond the troll factor, even if Elon snags even a minority stake.
What COULD he do with it?
It’s possible Elon would cross-pollinating his empire and do something with RyanAir…Like he does with Tesla Batteries and SpaceX…
Ryanair's infrastructure (airports, routes, logistics) could be a goldmine for synergies.
SpaceX already does Starship; why not electric jets?
Ryanair's network spans 40+ countries with 250+ airports.
Elon could tap this for Boring Company tunnels/hyperloops at key hubs and create underground high-speed links between terminals or to city centers…
Have you ever rode Chicago’s blue line?
Could Ryanair planes become flying Starlink nodes? Beaming data mid-flight?
Could Elon use Ryanair's ground infrastructure (hangars, maintenance facilities) as pop-up data centers for xAI BEFORE launching them to outer space?
What if Elon could take his Tesla's solar panels and batteries to Ryanair hangars and airports for green charging stations?
Then power electric ground vehicles or future eVTOLs?
While the possibilities are limitless…Elon's already overloaded: Tesla robotaxis, Mars missions, xAI supercomputers, Neuralink brains…
It sounds like a typical run of the mill “prediction meme” that snuck its way into the mainstream.
Probably because it’s easy to make an event that includes Elon, who might be the single most-mentioned person across all prediction events right now (tweet counts, lawsuits, Mars trips, trillionaire odds—you name it, there's a market).
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