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Happy Thursday, honestly not much happening in prediction markets we haven’t already covered so we’ll just look at tonights game.
Thursday Night Football. ESPN has the line at 42.5.
But prediction markets have the unders coming
Most of the money is trading on the UNDER across lines above 42.5…
🐳 Whale Watch — Tonight: Falcons vs. Packers
The most important line is the 43.5 UNDER — $203.7K in whale volume, the largest total market on the board.
8 of 16 active whales back UNDER. Dead split on headcount.
But there’s more capital on one side than the other.
UNDER: +$111.3K net — $111.3K bought, $0 sold. 10 buys, 0 sells.
OVER: +$87.1K net — $89.7K bought, $2.7K sold. 14 buys, 1 sell.
More whales bought OVER — but the UNDER whales wrote bigger checks.
More importantly: one OVER whale already sold $2.7K of their position.
Nobody on the UNDER has sold a single dollar. Zero sell volume. Every whale who bought UNDER is still in.
The whale read tonight: Packers are favored to win.
Looks to be a low 40s scoring game. Total lands somewhere in the low 40s.
I have no position but it looks like the score could come in at 43-44.
If the game comes in at exactly 44 — the UNDER 44.5 will look like the smartest line on the board. Just an observation.
🌙 Daily Prediction Market Moonshot Report
3.7 cents. YES. $1,000.
This wallet put $1,000 on alien disclosure before 2027.
This is the third time we've featured this market. Third different wallet. All buying YES under 5 cents. At 3.7 cents, $1,000 buys roughly 27,000 YES shares. Payout: approximately $27,000.
Someone keeps buying this at midnight or odd hours. Make of that what you will.
4.4 cents. YES. $1,700.
This wallet put $1,700 on Xi leaving power before 2027.
Second Xi moonshot we've featured this week. Different wallet. Same thesis. At 4.4 cents, $1,700 buys roughly 38,600 YES shares. Payout: approximately $38,600.
Putin out. Xi out. Someone is systematically betting on authoritarian exits before year end.
4.7 cents. YES. $1,000.
This wallet put $1,000 on a Bitcoin crash to $45,000 before year end.
We've now featured Bitcoin downside trades at $40,000, $45,000, and $45,000 again across three consecutive days. Three different wallets. All buying the crash scenario under 5 cents.
At 4.7 cents, $1,000 buys roughly 21,300 YES shares. Payout: approximately $21,300.
5.1 cents. YES. $1,000.
This wallet put $1,000 on Mayor Pete at exactly 6:00 PM yesterday.
Fourth time in the moonshot report. Four different wallets. All buying Buttigieg under 6 cents. Nobody is selling. At 5.1 cents, $1,000 buys roughly 19,600 YES shares. Payout: approximately $19,600.
At some point the Buttigieg accumulation pattern becomes its own story.
More moonshot opportunities updated in real time at Prediction Market Whales.
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