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Happy Friday people.
We’ve spent the past 48 hours working tirelessly behind the scenes on something we’ve never done before.
But I looked through weeks 1 through 5 plus Thursday’s Broncos-Seahawks game and mapped 1,274 unique * whale * wallets, 21,102 individual trades, and cross-referenced every pick against actual outcomes.
Here’s what we found:
374 wallets made 5 or more bets.
154 came out profitable. The majority lost money.
Of the wallets that were profitable, we identified a verified sharp tier, wallets with strong win rates, verifiable ROI, no hedging (no buying both sides), active across multiple weeks.
For now, looking ahead to this weekends games here’s where whales are leaning…
CAR @ PHI — Mixed signal. Nearly identical dollar amounts on opposite sides from wallets with opposite track records. One historically profitable wallet on Carolina ($23,669). A separate whale who’s been a net loser is on Philadelphia.
Early lean: Panthers.
CHI @ ATL — Two wallets with positive history on the Falcons. No meaningful counter-positioning.
Early lean: Falcons.
TEN @ IND — a wallet with positive track record across multiple weeks, positioned on the Colts.
Early lean: Colts.
BUF @ LV — Multiple whales on Bills. One of them is the largest historical earner in the active set ($452,643 P&L)
Low win rate but massive volume and positive P&L.
That’s a market-maker whale profile, but still.
HOU @ JAX — One huge whale is on Jaguars. Only 2 historical bets but he’s got a 100% win rate and an 84% ROI.
Honestly the two cleanest additional signals are Bills and Jaguars.
DAL @ GB — Interesting tension. Raw capital flow slightly favors Dallas. But one historically profitable wallet loves Green Bay. Early lean: split, but confident it’ll be clearer by Sunday.
Speaking of Sunday, there’s more data that I’d like to publish that won’t be available until then.
And with that data we’ll see who has perhaps, maybe, the best probability to win on Sunday.
If you’d like that email, if that’s something you’d be interested in, since it’s outside of our normal publishing schedule. LMK.
Reply back to this email.
🌙 Moonshot Report — October 16, 2026
About the moonshots, Prediction Market Whales lowered the threshold to roughly $750 to increase exposure to more asymmetric, upside opportunities.
Strait of Hormuz Returns to Normal by October 31
Wallet: 0xc851...CD2a | Price: 0.9¢ | Notional: $1,100 | Time: Oct 15, 12:47
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island No Longer Under Iranian Control by October 31
Wallet: 0xaC87...Ae28 | Price: 3.0¢ | Notional: $792 | Time: Oct 16, 02:33
Hormuz Agreement + Democrats Win the Senate
Wallets: 0x7C3D...5C6B ($956, 4.3¢, Oct 15 12:41) and 0x401e...6FC9 ($1,400, 4.4¢, Oct 15 12:39)
US Announces End of Iranian Blockade by October 31
Wallet: 0x12d6...f2a8 | Price: 5.0¢ | Notional: $1,600 | Time: Oct 16, 05:10
Four wallets, four separate Hormuz contracts, all buying YES on normalization — all placed within 19 hours of each other. The thesis is the same across every entry: the blockade ends, the strait reopens, Iranian island control shifts. The market isn’t pricing it likely. These wallets are pricing it possible.
Israel/Iran Ceasefire Continues Through October 21 — NO
Wallet: 0x6575...B198 | Price: 5.0¢ | Notional: $1,600 | Time: Oct 16, 07:13
While four wallets are betting on Hormuz normalization, this one is going the other direction — $1,600 on the ceasefire breaking before October 21. Five days.
At 5¢, the market gives it a 1-in-20 shot. This wallet disagrees. Payout if correct: ~$32,000.
Green Bay Packers — 2027 NFL Champion
Wallet: 0x23d8...0288 | Price: 2.0¢ | Notional: $774 | Time: Oct 15, 18:40
Green Bay at 2 cents. Someone put $774 on the Packers winning the Super Bowl. Payout if correct: ~$38,700.
Bitcoin Hits $100,000 in October
Wallet: 0xD2d5...Df2f | Price: 2.3¢ | Notional: $800 | Time: Oct 15, 13:51
BTC would need to hit six figures in the next 16 days. The market puts it at 2.3 cents. Payout if correct: ~$34,700.
Raphaël Glucksmann Wins the 2027 French Presidential Election
Wallet: 0xb7D0...3cE8 | Price: 3.2¢ | Notional: $900 | Time: Oct 16, 03:48
Glucksmann is the Socialist Party leader and current MEP — not a household name outside France, but a credible candidate in a crowded field. At 3.2 cents, the market doesn’t think he wins. This wallet put $900 on it anyway. Payout if correct: ~$28,100.
Kylian Mbappé Wins the 2026 Ballon d’Or
Wallet: 0xDb21...dDB1 | Price: 3.9¢ | Notional: $1,300 | Time: Oct 15, 14:43
Mbappé at Real Madrid hasn’t had the dominant individual season the award typically requires. The market has him at under 4 cents. Someone just put $1,300 on him winning anyway. Payout if correct: ~$33,300.
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