We went 3 for [6]*. Brazil went worse.

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Not a bad weekend. 50%. Three for six. (Editors note: earlier version read “3 for 3”, meant “3 for 6”!)

Here’s the full scorecard.

✅ SteelersSteelers beat the Saints, 16–10
✅ Bengals beat the Ravens, 35–13
✅ Bears
❌ Titans lost to the Browns, 27–24
❌ Colts lost to the Vikings, 16–10
❌ Panthers lost to the Buccaneers, 43–13

Not the results we wanted but the takeaway is we now know the tweaks needed in order for the PMW model to produce some incredible results.

I didn’t include the 4PM games or Sunday nights game.

More picks are coming this week.

Now, onto today’s top story

Unchained: Brazil election results spark debate over prediction markets after Lula wins at 20% odds.
Prediction markets had Flávio Bolsonaro at 80% on Sunday morning. Lula won. Was the market wrong, or did the one-in-five just hit?

The bigger question: Are the odds information, or advertising?

Most people treat prediction market odds as information: the crowd’s best guess, with money behind it.

Sometimes that’s exactly what they are.

But odds are just the last price someone paid. And a price can be bought.

If the sell side of the order book is thin, a well-funded trader can buy up the available contracts and push a candidate’s odds higher. They can push them lower, too.

Those odds then get quoted on cable news and shared on social media as proof of who’s winning.

We reported last week on a Brennan Center-funded study finding that voters were 10 to 20 points more likely to believe a candidate would win when prediction markets favored them, even voters who said they didn’t trust the markets.

Defenders say this can’t work for long. For every buyer there’s a seller, they argue. If someone pushes a price too high, sharp traders sell into it, take the manipulator’s money and drag the odds back to fair value. Any distortion is small and short-lived.

That holds in a deep market. It doesn’t hold in a thin one. Liquidity is finite at any given moment. If only $30,000 of orders sits between Bolsonaro and a five-point move, $30,000 moves him five points, and nobody is obligated to step in and sell. Correcting a mispriced market takes capital and conviction, and in a fast-moving election night neither shows up on schedule.

Nothing in the Brazil reporting shows anyone manipulated that market.

But it shows how little money it would have taken.

🌙 Prediction Market Whales Weekend Moonshot Report

🗳️ 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
0.8–1.6 cents. YES. About $10,900 across four buys from two wallets. Oct 23, 12:14 PM–10:23 PM.
This wallet bought $1,000 and $800 at 0.8 cents, then another $5,100 at 1.6 cents, all within 43 minutes. Later, a second wallet, the same one we’ve repeatedly flagged buying this split-Congress outcome, added $4,000 at 0.8 cents.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats in each chamber to take control of Congress on November 3. Either chamber would give them leverage to obstruct Trump’s legislative agenda and launch investigations, with lawyers already preparing clients for potential congressional probes.
At the listed prices, about $10,900 buys roughly 1.04 million YES shares across the two wallets. Payout if correct: approximately $1.04 million.

🇨🇳 Xi Jinping out before 2027?
2.8–3.2 cents. YES. About $5,000 across two wallets. Oct 24, 7:49 AM.
This wallet bought about $4,100 at 2.8 cents, while another wallet bought $857 at 3.2 cents. Both trades landed in the same second.
China’s Communist Party gathers next week for a leadership meeting focused on tightening internal discipline, following purges that have removed senior officials and military commanders. Despite that upheaval, analysts widely expect Xi to secure a fourth term as party leader in 2027 and do not expect the meeting to reveal a succession plan.
At the listed prices, about $5,000 buys roughly 173,200 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $173,200.

🏈 NC State beats Stanford?
3.0 cents. NC State. About $5,100. Oct 24, 1:35 AM.
This wallet put about $5,100 on NC State at 3 cents. It’s the serial longshot buyer that shows up in our feed almost daily.
This game has already finished: Stanford beat NC State 31–28, so the Wolfpack wager did not hit. Stanford quarterback Davis Warren threw for 303 yards and four touchdowns in the Friday-night ACC matchup.
At 3 cents, about $5,100 buys roughly 170,000 shares. Potential payout was approximately $170,000; instead, it paid $0.

🐘 Ron DeSantis wins the 2028 Republican nomination?
3.5 cents. YES. About $1,200. Oct 23, 10:29 PM.
This wallet put about $1,200 on DeSantis winning the Republican nomination, then bought his presidential-election outcome one minute later. Last week, we flagged a different wallet putting $4,100 on DeSantis’s nomination at 2.9 cents.
DeSantis greeted Trump in Fort Myers on Friday as the president arrived to campaign for Florida Republicans. The appearance put the former presidential rivals together as DeSantis approaches the end of his governorship in January, with his next political move still unsettled.
At 3.5 cents, about $1,200 buys roughly 34,300 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $34,300.

🇺🇸 Ron DeSantis wins the 2028 presidential election?
3.6 cents. YES. About $1,100. Oct 23, 10:30 PM.
The same wallet followed its nomination buy with about $1,100 on DeSantis winning the White House.
Florida’s term limits bar DeSantis from seeking a third consecutive term, leaving him without his current office heading into the next presidential cycle. His first presidential campaign ended after a distant loss to Trump in Iowa in 2024, and he has not publicly committed to another run.
At 3.6 cents, about $1,100 buys roughly 30,600 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $30,600.

🐻 Steve Hilton wins the 2026 California governor’s race?
3.9 cents. YES. About $2,500. Oct 23, 10:15 PM.
This wallet bought about $2,500 on Hilton before making its two DeSantis purchases, putting about $4,800 into the three political outcomes in 15 minutes.
Hilton, a British-born former conservative commentator, faces Democrat Xavier Becerra in the race to replace Gavin Newsom. California has not elected a Republican statewide in two decades, and a recent Emerson College poll put Becerra ahead by 27 points.
At 3.9 cents, about $2,500 buys roughly 64,100 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $64,100.

⚽ Borussia Mönchengladbach beats Stuttgart?
4.0 cents. YES. About $4,800 across three wallets. Oct 23, 2:51 PM–2:59 PM.
This wallet bought about $1,500, this wallet bought about $1,200, and this wallet bought about $2,100. All three paid 4 cents within roughly eight minutes.
This one hit: Gladbach beat Stuttgart 3–2 away from home on Friday. Joe Scally, Shuto Machino and Wael Mohya scored for the visitors, who overturned an early deficit and survived Stuttgart’s late second goal.
At 4 cents, about $4,800 buys roughly 120,000 YES shares. Winning payout: approximately $120,000 across the three wallets, assuming they held through resolution. The biggest buyer’s $2,100 alone pays about $52,500.

🪖 NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
4.0 cents. YES. $771. Oct 23, 4:01 PM.
This wallet put $771 on a NATO–Russia military clash before the end of October.
NATO announced Tuesday that it would send more patrol aircraft, radar systems and drones to the Black Sea after deadly attacks on commercial shipping near Romania and Bulgaria. Military analysts have pointed to Russia, but the alliance has not formally attributed the attacks and Moscow has not acknowledged responsibility.
At 4 cents, $771 buys 19,275 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $19,275.

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