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🐻 PMW Alert: Cashed
Congrats to anyone who took the Bears last night.
Before kickoff Thursday, we posted the Prediction Market Whales model pick**: the Bears.**
The Bears beat the Patriots.
Congrats subscribers.
Now, onto today’s top stories…
Associated Press: New Pentagon directive bans troops from using nonpublic info to bet in prediction markets.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says “our enemies watch movements in these markets.”
Hegseth’s memo bars troops and Pentagon civilians from trading on Polymarket, Kalshi and similar platforms using nonpublic information, whether it’s classified or not.
Violators face administrative punishment and possible criminal charges under the Uniform Code of Military Justice or federal law.
The memo follows the case of Special Forces Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, charged in April with using classified details of the Maduro operation to turn more than $32,500 in bets into more than $400,000 on Polymarket.
Ohio Capital Journal: Ohio policymakers wrestle with prediction markets as wagers on sports and politics explode.
Kalshi traders bet more on one Browns game than on every Ohio race on the ballot combined.
As of October 21, Kalshi users had bet $8.1 million on Ohio’s U.S. Senate race and $3.6 million on the governor’s race, with another $1.4 million and $603,000 on Polymarket.
Sports dwarf politics: Game 6 of the Guardians–Rays ALCS drew $22.1 million on Kalshi, and this month’s Browns–Steelers game drew $119.5 million.
State Sen. Bill DeMora, D-Columbus, has filed a bill that would treat sports trades on prediction markets like sportsbook bets and ban political bets outright.
Axios: Kalshi wants permission to list compute markets.
Kalshi wants to turn the most important input in AI into a tradable commodity.
Kalshi has asked the CFTC for permission to re-list compute derivatives, which would let users trade the future cost of renting the GPUs that run AI.
Semafor reported that the Commerce Department ordered Kalshi to take the markets down earlier this year over national security concerns. Commerce denied it.
Kalshi compliance chief Sudhir Jain argues that AI labs could lock in their costs and data center operators could protect the revenue behind their GPU investments. The CFTC’s comment period closed Tuesday.
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