As of Tuesday February 10th, Kalshi paused trading and both Yes and No Kelce contract holders on whether or not he “attended the big game”.

The results are TBD.

The controversy is whether or not Jason Kelce was at the Super Bowl.

In case you were wondering…

Here’s Kelce tackling the biggest burger we’ve ever seen at the Super Bowl.

Here’s Jason Kelce wearing a Marshall sweatshirt at the Super Bowl…

And here's Kelce at NFL on ESPN: "LIVE from Levi Stadium Super Bowl LX." looking like he’s there.

But is he there there. Or was he just there but not there?

While the rules state he’s there if he “attends the pro football championship in 2026….”

The rules don’t specify a time (pregame? during game? postgame?).

Or being a ticket holder… or a time-window, e.g. from kickoff to final whistle.

So until it resolves and we know for sure, it’s turning out to be a classic oracle mismatch… 

In prediction markets, an oracle is whatever source or rule the platform uses to decide what actually happened (e.g., "did Jason Kelce attend?").

An oracle mismatch is when the formal resolution rule ("attends the pro football championship in 2026") doesn't line up with what most traders think the question means ("is at the game during kickoff and actually watching in a seat").

In this instance, a lot of people think he wasn’t “there”.

Even though he was “there” at pre-game. Did you see the size of that sandwich?

The No’s see it differently.

They say since he wasn’t verifiably “there” between kickoff and the final whistle (which isn’t in the rules). They should win.

Anyway, that gap lets some traders "game" the resolution by betting on how the platform will interpret the rules, not on what the crowd intuitively believes.

This is a little messier than that, since there’s no resolution (yet).

But the point remains.

Our responsibility is to read the rules.

That’s one thing.

But Kalshi could write better rules. 

Frankly "attends the pro football championship" isn’t the clearest.

The super bowl is often considered the entire week.

I don’t agree but the entire day, inside the stadium could be considered being at the championship.

Pre-game is still the game. Right?

When there’s an image on Jason’s instagram attending the location and date and within minutes of kickoff it’s kinda hard not to trade that…

That’s not me btw.

Not that I’m not resolution trading here, because I am.

I definitely have a dog in this fight and aim to be on the right side of the oracle mismatch.

So we’ll see.

Kalshi is in a bind.

Do they grant the Yes’s a payout since they were “right”?

Do they grant the No’s a payout since they may have been right too?

Do they revert back and process a refund because the rules were unclear?

Well see.

Good luck out there today.

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