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Prediction Market Edge

June 23, 2026

Ready to vote for the 2028 presidential election?

In get it, the 2028 presidential race hasn't started.

There are no debates. No primaries. No campaign ads.

But right now, and you’re not going to believe it, serious money is already positioning on who sits in the Oval Office two and a half years from now.

And it’s NOT who you think it is.

Unless you think it’s Marco Rubio.

And whales are fading him hard.

But before we get into tall that, I want to show you the full picture of where serious money is positioned right now — across 2028 politics, MLB stat races, the Fed's next three meetings, and a handful of markets nobody saw coming.

🗳️ 2028 — THE RACE THAT HASN'T STARTED YET

🐳 NO — Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — $62.8K volume. Smart money isn't backing the Secretary of State's White House ambitions.
🐳 NO — Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? — $9.8K volume. Whales don't see a crypto pardon coming this month.
🐳 YES — Will Donald Trump visit North Dakota in 2026? — $4.1K volume. Someone put real money on a presidential road trip to North Dakota. Someone knows something.

MLB STAT RACES — THE FULL PICTURE

The RBI race just got more crowded.

The strikeout race is heating up too — and nobody's getting backed:

Team win totals:

And one head-to-head that stands alone:

🐳 NO — MLB: Aaron Judge or Juan Soto to draw more walks? — $6.9K volume. Whales say neither of these names wins the walks title.

🏦 THE FED — SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER NOW IN PLAY

Smart money has already priced July. Now the positioning moves to the next two meetings.

🐳 NO — Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? — $60.4K volume. No aggressive cuts in October.
🐳 NO — Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? — $23.2K volume. Even a single cut is getting faded.
🐳 YES — Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? — $9.0K volume. First whale YES on a rate hike — September. Worth watching.
🐳 NO — Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? — $5.3K volume.
🐳 NO — Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — $4.8K volume. Eight cuts? Not a chance.
🐳 NO — Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — $4.0K volume.
🐳 NO — Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? — $4.2K volume. Not this month either.

The whale picture on the Fed: No cuts in July. No cuts in 2026 at all as the base case. But September just got a small YES on a hike — first time that's shown up. That's a signal worth tracking.

I really hope you see this before it's too late.

2028 positioning already underway.

MLB stat races being priced in AS WE SPEAK.

And a lone whale just bet on a September rate hike while everyone else is sitting on their hands.

A Fed hike, really.

There will be more on the Fed in the coming days.

Regardless, have a great day.

Oh, and check out the upgrade we did to the live feed here it’s some pretty exciting stuff.

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