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Prediction Market Edge
June 18, 2026
Yesterday I showed you where serious money was positioned.
On the Fed. On Iran. On the Strait of Hormuz.
But after Warsh’s first FOMC everything changed.
Check it out…
🏦 THE FED — $33 MILLION CALLED IT
Yesterday's email said:
"$1.3 million says Warsh doesn't move today. Nearly $309K says he doesn't cut either."
Result: Warsh held. Hawkish statement. Zero movement.
🐳 YES — No change in Fed rates after June 2026 meeting — $33M volume. Whales were right.
🐳 NO — Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting — $308.9K volume. Whales were right.
🐳 NO — Fed increase rates 25 bps after June meeting — $1.3M volume. Whales were right.
Three separate markets. Three correct calls. Before the meeting happened.
The whales were right. This time.
🇮🇷 IRAN — $102 MILLION CALLED THIS TOO
Yesterday's email flagged the Strait of Hormuz flipping to YES.
Here's what happened:
The US and Iran announced a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding. Immediate halt to military operations. Hormuz reopens.
$300 billion reconstruction commitment.
60-day window to finalize a permanent deal. Formal signing scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland.
It’s crazy that $102 million was already positioned on this before a single headline broke.
Or is it?
🐳 YES — US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15 — $102.2M volume. The biggest single market on this platform. Whales called it.
🐳 YES — US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 — $21.6M volume. Direction flipped to YES as the MOU took effect.
🐳 YES — US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31 — $5.4M volume. Smart money expects the final deal lands within the 60-day window.
🐳 YES — Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31 — $493.4K volume. Flagged yesterday. Now confirmed.
The whale picture:
Is it a permanent peace deal? TBH we’ll see.
Technically a preliminary MOU with core issues deferred.
But $102 million called the direction correctly before anyone outside the negotiating room knew what was happening.
As Bill Ackman posted: "Concerning."
As Cernovich put it: "Trump can always bomb again. Iran knows this. Iran can always tank the world economy. Trump knows this."
The 60-day window to finalize starts now. The next markets to watch:
🐳 YES — US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31 — $2.3M volume. Smart money still backing the full deal.
🐳 YES — US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31 — $175.7K volume. Talks continuing.
⚽ WORLD CUP IS STILL GOING ON — THE BIG FLIP
If you haven’t been paying attention to the World Cup it’s insane this year.
Argentina — the defending champions — just got hit with the biggest fade on the platform.
🐳 NO — Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup — $12.9M volume. Nearly $13 million fading the defending champions. That's not retail noise. That's a thesis.
🐳 YES — Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup — $9.3M volume. Home tournament. Smart money backing the hosts.
🐳 YES — Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup — $5.4M volume. Defending European champions getting serious whale backing.
🐳 YES — Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup — $896.4K volume. Consistent dark horse backing.
🐳 NO — Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup — $995.7K volume. Nearly $1M fading Norway.
The whale picture on the World Cup:
Argentina out. USA and Spain in.
Colombia lurking. Norway being faded hard.
Smart money is rewriting the favorites while the underdogs rewrite history.
🌏 GEOPOLITICS — WHAT'S NEXT AFTER IRAN
With Iran temporarily resolved, whale attention is rotating:
🐳 NO — Putin out as President of Russia by December 31 — $2.9M volume. Putin stays.
🐳 NO — Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027 — $583.6K volume. Even 18 months out — whales don't see it.
🐳 YES — Will Trump visit China by June 30 — $618.1K volume. After the Iran deal — smart money expects a Xi meeting before month end.
🐳 NO — Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027 — $15.2M volume. Despite everything else — no alien disclosure coming.
🤖 AI — THREE MODELS, THREE MARKETS
The robots are taking over.
Plan accordingly.
🐳 YES — Claude 4.8 released by July 31 — $21.4K volume. Whales expect a new Anthropic model this summer.
🐳 YES — Claude Mythos model released by July 31 — $10.8K volume. Frontier model expected soon.
🐳 YES — Gemini 3.5 released by July 31 — $9.4K volume. Google also expected to ship this summer.
🐳 NO — OpenAI IPO by July 31 — $28.7K volume. Not this summer.
Let me take a moment and say thank you for following along this journey wth me.
prediction markets (and really, the big money, those putting down hundreds of thousands, even millions of dollars) are providing more signal and direction than we could imagine.
The platform and data aggregation of these moves are getting better and better.
Huge upgrade happening Monday.
The live feed, (which is actually live), allows you to watch energy and money coming into prediction markets and real events it getting better and better.
There will be no “free trial”, to the live feed. it’s being given away for free for you to enjoy, as a thank you for hanging out with me, reading this ever evolving newsletter, and being a participant in this incredible journey we call life.
As always, if you want to see who's worth following (and who isn't)…
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