_{___________________________________________________________________}

March 25, 2026

How Many Tornadoes Will Hit the US in April? — 170-199 at 49%

Most prediction markets are about politics, economics, or tech. This one is about the sky.

Before we look at what this April might bring, let's look at what last April actually did — because the recent history matters more than most traders are pricing.

April 2025 finished with 323 confirmed tornadoes.

That made it the third most active April on record, behind only 2024 and 2011.

It started with a massive outbreak at the beginning of the month that spawned 156 tornadoes in a single event and triggered widespread flooding across multiple states.

After a mid-month lull, activity picked back up with five straight days of tornadic activity in the Mississippi Valley. Then scattered activity through the final week to close out the month.

No violent tornadoes. Just relentless volume.

For context, the 1991-2020 historical average for April is 182 tornadoes.

Last April nearly doubled it.

The year before — 2024 — was even more active, currently sitting as the second most active April on record.

Polymarket is running a market on total US tornado reports in April 2026, and the crowd has a clear favorite: 170-199 tornadoes at 49%.

That's basically the market saying April will be a normal month — right around the long-term average.

But the way the world has been going, nothing seems to be normal anymore.

Look at this setup…

If that’s any indication of what April showers will bring who knows waht could happen.

Four factors determine whether April is boring or catastrophic — and none of them are astrology, zodiac years, or pole shifts, no matter what your feed says.

First is ENSO. The El Niño/La Niña cycle shifts the jet stream and storm track across the US. La Niña years, where the jet stream dips further south and stays active, tend to produce more favorable severe weather setups in the central and southern Plains. El Niño years tend to suppress spring severe weather.

This isn't a guarantee — 2011's historic super outbreak happened in a neutral year — but it's the single biggest macro signal.

Second is Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures.

Warm Gulf waters fuel the moisture that feeds severe thunderstorms. When the Gulf is running anomalously warm — more than a degree Celsius above normal in the western and central sectors — low-level moisture return into the Plains is richer and more sustained.

Third is the late-March pattern. A March that's already producing Enhanced risk days and multi-day severe episodes is a leading indicator for April. The atmosphere doesn't reset on April 1. A pattern that's already active in late March tends to roll straight into an active April.

Fourth is the background climate state and soil moisture. Warmer baseline temperatures mean easier instability. Soil moisture affects boundary layer behavior in ways that are subtle but real.

Right now, as of this morning, the Storm Prediction Center has a level 2 slight risk Thursday into Thursday night for Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan — with 5% hatched tornado probability and 15% hatched hail and damaging wind. That's not a major outbreak but it's not nothing either.

It's the pattern already showing some activity before April even starts. Again, check the image above.

If you wanna see if any whales are taking trades then I’d start here.

The outlier years the market might be underweighting

The 350+ bucket is sitting at about 27%.

That sounds high for what would be an historically extreme April — until you remember that April 2025 hit roughly 350 tornado reports.

Last year. One year ago. Nearly double the long-term average.

2011 was the other extreme — the super outbreak month, record April tornado counts, catastrophic fatalities across the Southeast.

Both 2011 and 2025 were driven by specific confluence of factors: active jet stream pattern, rich Gulf moisture, primed instability. Neither was random.

The quiet years are equally instructive. April 2013 had 83 tornadoes — less than half the long-term average — during a period NOAA explicitly called out as a prolonged low-tornado stretch.

The difference between 83 and 350 in the same calendar month, across different years, tells you that anchoring on the average without checking the current setup is a mistake.

How to read the current brackets

The market structure is worth unpacking. 170-199 at 49% is the consensus anchor.

Below 140 at 38% is surprisingly high for what would be a genuinely suppressed month — the crowd is hedging more toward quiet than toward active. 350+ at 33% means one in three traders thinks this April looks like last April.

The math on these brackets is interesting.

They don't add up to 100% because each is an independent Yes/No contract.

You can bet multiple brackets simultaneously — and if you think the distribution is skewed toward the tails, there's a spread trade available between the middle buckets and the extremes.

Not picking a side here but 330 looks reasonable considering a lot of things, but one of which is the meaningful probability on scenarios that would require specific atmospheric setups to materialize.

🐳 Live Whale Feed — Every whale trade appears the moment it's placed (1,000s of whales tracked daily)

💰 Tiered Live Feed — $25K, $50K, $100K+ moves

🎯 Smart Ranking & Filtering — Sort whales by size, buy/sell direction, and more

📊 Analysis Available — Access the polymarket wallet addresses, P&L, positions, total volume

⚡ Clean, Built for Speed — built for speed. on politics, crypto, tech & more

🏆 Sports Included!

Click here to get started for free!

_{___________________________________________________________________}

_DISCLAIMER:

_{The Content is not intended to provide, and does not constitute, financial, investment, trading, tax, legal, or any other form of professional advice. It is not a recommendation, suggestion, solicitation, or offer to buy, sell, trade, or hold any securities, event contracts, derivatives, cryptocurrencies, or other financial instruments on platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, or any other prediction market.}

_{Prediction Market Edge believes the Content is reliable but makes no representations or warranties as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or suitability for any purpose. The Content is subject to change without notice, and Prediction Market Edge assumes no duty or obligation to update it.}

_{Trading in prediction markets involves significant risk of loss, including the potential loss of your entire investment. Past performance (including any highlighted “wins” or gains) is not indicative of future results. Markets are volatile, influenced by news, liquidity, resolution rules, and other factors, and individual results will vary. Subscribers and readers should conduct their own independent research, consider their financial situation, risk tolerance, and objectives, and consult qualified professionals before making any trading or investment decisions.}

_{Prediction Market Edge is not responsible for any third-party information, market data, platform rules, or services referenced herein, including but not limited to Polymarket, Kalshi, or other exchanges. Use of the Content is at your own risk.}

_{By subscribing to or accessing this Newsletter or related materials, you agree that Prediction Market Edge and its affiliates shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or other damages arising from your use of the Content.}

_{For important additional information, please review our full Terms of Service, Privacy Policy, and any Subscription Agreement (available on predictionmarketedge.com).}