In partnership with
___________________________________________________________________
Today in Prediction Markets | September 1, 2026
1. Donald Trump Jr.'s firm is leading a $1 billion funding round for Polymarket at a $21 billion valuation. 1789 Capital is putting in approximately $300 million, having previously invested $200 million when Polymarket was valued at $15 billion.
The valuation jumped 40% in one round. Trump Jr. advises both Kalshi and Polymarket simultaneously while his father's CFTC chair sues states that try to regulate them and the president declared on Truth Social that prediction markets would "thrive" under his leadership. But is it a conflict of interest? They seem to say the question writes itself, and the New York Times is now adamant.
Whether that matters to the industry's trajectory is a different question…
2. Kalshi permanently banned George Santos and suspended three political candidates for betting on their own races. George Santos manipulated the price of State of the Union contracts by making public statements about his planned attendance and then buying those contracts.
Kalshi's filing: Santos "made these statements with the intent to manipulate the price." Santos on X: "Hey @Kalshi thanks for the lifetime ban from your gambling platform. Let's see how much longer you guys are around for."
The three candidates — Ben Midgley, Stephen Cloobeck, and Laurie Buckhout — each bet on their own races in violation of Kalshi's insider trading rules.
Midgley told the Bangor Daily News he "viewed Kalshi as a novelty and entertainment source" and wasn't aware candidates couldn't support themselves. Cloobeck, a billionaire, put $10,000 on his own candidacy and got a three-year ban plus a $31,770 fine. The enforcement is real. The violations keep coming anyway.
3. Federal authorities are preparing to charge a US servicemember and a KPMG employee with prediction market insider trading. The servicemember allegedly netted over $1 million betting on US military strikes in Iran and Venezuela using non-public operational intelligence.
The KPMG employee allegedly traded on earnings information obtained through client work. Federal prosecutors in Manhattan and Washington are coordinating with the CFTC. Charges are expected this autumn. These cases join Army Green Beret Gannon Van Dyke (charged in April after allegedly using classified military intelligence to make $400,000 on Polymarket) and Google engineer Michele Spagnuolo.
The CFTC filed an amicus brief in the Van Dyke trial making its position explicit: prediction platforms are regulated financial markets, not gambling sites. Van Dyke's lawyers are arguing the opposite. The court hasn't ruled yet. When it does, the decision will define what insider trading means in prediction markets for the next decade.
4. Prediction markets are cooling on gold after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech revived rate hike bets. Polymarket now gives just 13% odds on gold reaching $6,000 by December, down sharply from recent levels.
Odds on $5,000 are barely better than even. Gold slipped below $4,450 on Monday after falling more than 3% on Friday (its steepest one-day drop since June) after Warsh warned inflation was not easing and the Fed's task was not complete. Futures are now pricing a 60% chance of a rate hike in September, up from 36% a week ago.
The same debasement trade that drove gold's strongest monthly rise since January — powered by Bessent's bond buyback announcement — is now running in reverse as the Fed signals the opposite direction.
🌙 Daily Prediction Market Moonshot Report
🗳️ The Wes Moore Double-Down
This wallet made two trades 30 seconds apart yesterday afternoon.
1:10 PM: Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — $1,600 on YES at 1.7 cents.
1:11 PM: Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — $1,800 on YES at 0.9 cents.
Same wallet. Same candidate. Nomination AND general election. Thirty seconds apart.
Backing Moore to win the primary AND the presidency simultaneously? Hmm, do they know something? Hedging across both markets? Or just hoping for a quick buck?
At 0.9 cents, $1,800 on the general election buys 200,000 YES shares. Payout if Moore wins the presidency: approximately $200,000.
At 1.7 cents, $1,600 on the nomination buys roughly 94,000 YES shares. Payout if Moore wins the nomination: approximately $94,000.
Combined investment: $3,400. Combined potential payout: $294,000.
2.4 cents. YES.
This wallet put $2,000 on Mayor Pete at 9:37 AM yesterday.
At 2.4 cents, $2,000 buys roughly 83,300 YES shares. Payout if Buttigieg wins the presidency in 2028: approximately $83,300.
The former Transportation Secretary.
Someone sees a path.
6.0 cents. NO.
This wallet put $1,100 on NO at 5:33 AM this morning.
At 6 cents, $1,100 buys roughly 18,300 NO shares. If Anthropic does NOT have the best AI model by end of September — payout: approximately $18,300.
GPT-5.6 just launched. Google is pushing Gemini. xAI dropped Grok 4. Someone just bet $1,100 that Anthropic loses the model crown before October.
We covered the Anthropic valuation ladder a few weeks ago — whales were backing $1.75T by year end. This wallet is betting the product leadership doesn't hold through the month.
More moonshot opportunities updated in real time at Prediction Market Whales.
Join CX leaders from Clay, Anthropic, and more at Pioneer
AI is fundamentally transforming CX, making perfect experiences possible. But there's no playbook for delivering them.
Join Pioneer on October 7th to explore how CX leaders are redefining what's possible with AI.
You’ll learn how some of the most innovative leaders from Clay, Anthropic, Gamma, and more are transforming their organizations and reinventing their operations.
Plus, you’ll hear from Fin product leaders on their vision for Fin and be the first to see what’s new.
___________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER:
The Content is not intended to provide, and does not constitute, financial, investment, trading, tax, legal, or any other form of professional advice. It is not a recommendation, suggestion, solicitation, or offer to buy, sell, trade, or hold any securities, event contracts, derivatives, cryptocurrencies, or other financial instruments on platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, or any other prediction market.
Prediction Market Edge believes the Content is reliable but makes no representations or warranties as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or suitability for any purpose. The Content is subject to change without notice, and Prediction Market Edge assumes no duty or obligation to update it.
Trading in prediction markets involves significant risk of loss, including the potential loss of your entire investment. Past performance (including any highlighted “wins” or gains) is not indicative of future results. Markets are volatile, influenced by news, liquidity, resolution rules, and other factors, and individual results will vary. Subscribers and readers should conduct their own independent research, consider their financial situation, risk tolerance, and objectives, and consult qualified professionals before making any trading or investment decisions.
Prediction Market Edge is not responsible for any third-party information, market data, platform rules, or services referenced herein, including but not limited to Polymarket, Kalshi, or other exchanges. Use of the Content is at your own risk.
By subscribing to or accessing this Newsletter or related materials, you agree that Prediction Market Edge and its affiliates shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or other damages arising from your use of the Content.
For important additional information, please review our full Terms of Service, Privacy Policy, and any Subscription Agreement (available on predictionmarketedge.com).