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Someone just bet $4,800 to make $75,000 on Iran...
We’ll get to that but first here are the top stories today…
Cantor Fitzgerald just launched institutional block trading in prediction markets … Now one of the first full-service investment banks to provide institutional clients with access to block trades in event contracts on a CFTC-regulated exchange, Cantor acts as an introducing broker, arranging institutional-size trades through Kalshi's block trading framework away from the central order book, with Susquehanna Predictions providing pricing and liquidity.
Pascal Bandelier, Cantor's Co-CEO and Global Head of Equities said, "Prediction markets are growing rapidly, but institutional participation has not kept pace because investors have lacked the ability to transact at scale on a regulated exchange. The liquidity is here."
On the Susquehanna side, they talked about how prediction markets are now capable of pricing and executing custom, tailored contracts for institutional counterparties wanting to hedge market and industry risk. No surprise here but know that Cantor has been building institutional access to new markets for 80 years, and getting into prediction markets, while big news by itself, more or less confirms what we’ve known all along—prediction markets aren’t going anywhere.
Someone created fake polls to try to move prediction market prices, they got busted! At least three fabricated surveys were circulated last week across California, Nevada, and Wisconsin by a group called Median Strategies. One claiming LA Mayor Karen Bass was 12 points ahead of opponent Nithya Raman.
It was entirely made up.
The group later called it a "social experiment." Political scientists at USC and data experts flagged it immediately as a likely attempt to move Kalshi pricing. Kalshi's spokesperson confirmed the market "did not move" upon release. The significance isn't that it failed but that it was tried. Could this be the start of something bigger? More fake and nefarious activities to come? Who knows. The point is fake polls as a market manipulation vector is now a documented tactic, not a theoretical one. The Atlantic called the hair dryer incident "just the start." This is the political version.
Dustin Gouker and Eric Ramsey at Next Event Horizon pushed back on the "ban prediction markets and the action goes offshore" narrative … Their core point is that legalization in sports betting didn't just shift existing offshore activity onshore, it created massive amounts of new activity.
A ban wouldn't send everything offshore, instead, it would eliminate a significant portion of it entirely. The friction of offshore platforms, the absence from app stores, the inability to advertise, and the crypto-only payment rails all create real barriers that casual users won't bother clearing. The online poker collapse post-2011 is the a deent comparison in that people just stopped playing. But in the meanwhile, Kalshi just filed for perpetual contracts tied to equity indexes, Novig's early NFL preseason numbers are in, and the CFTC is reviewing mentions markets — the novelty contracts that let people bet on whether a specific word gets said during a broadcast. That last one is drawing outsized attention for something that represents a fraction of a percent of total volume.
🌙 PREDICTION MARKET MOONSHOT TRADE OF THE DAY
6 cents. YES.
This wallet put $4,800 on it yesterday morning.
At 6 cents, $4,800 buys roughly 80,000 YES shares. If this resolves YES before August 31 — eleven days from now — that position pays out somewhere north of $75,000.
The market says there's a 6% chance it happens. This wallet says that's cheap.
Whether they know something or they're just swinging — that's the question prediction markets were built to answer. More prediction market moonshot opportunities can be found here.
Get more meetings by removing the LinkedIn limits.
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Adding mailboxes to cold emails.
Placing more cold calls
Running more ads.
But what do you do if your leads are on LinkedIn? LinkedIn outreach still depends on the limited number of profiles already on your team.
Aimfox Avatars lets you rent dedicated, customizable LinkedIn profiles that start conversations and hand interested replies to your existing sellers.
Add outreach capacity without hiring another SDR or turning every employee account into a prospecting channel..
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