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The New York City Council is investigating the marketing and advertising practices of Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, and Gemini Titan — Council Speaker Julie Menin sent letters to all four platforms demanding information about potentially false or abusive tactics targeting young New Yorkers. "We refuse to let New Yorkers, especially our young people, become collateral damage." New York State sued Kalshi. New York City is now running its own parallel investigation. Things are heating up as he platforms are fighting a two-front war within the same city limits.
Citigroup just told its clients how to trade the midterm election outcomes — using Polymarket as the primary forecasting input — Polymarket currently prices a 48% chance of a full Democratic sweep in November, with another 38% expecting Democrats to take the House while Republicans hold the Senate. Citi's strategists mapped out the bond, equity, and rates implications of each scenario. A major Wall Street bank just published a client note where the primary data source is a prediction market.
Prediction market traders put 1-in-4 odds on Paramount's bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery falling through — Kalshi traders see a 74% likelihood the deal closes by July 2027, but 22% odds it doesn't. Before 12 state attorneys general sued to block the merger on July 13, success odds were above 80%. They fell as low as 66% when Paramount announced a delay to 2027. CNBC is now covering M&A deal probability the same way it covers earnings estimates — with Kalshi as the source. Zooming out, this is a meaningful shift in how Wall Street financial journalism treats prediction market data.
Pensions & Investments published a deep look at why prediction markets could become institutional hedging tools — and what's standing in the way — the case is straightforward: binary event contracts let institutions express direct views on macro outcomes without guessing how markets will react to the news. The hurdles are equally straightforward: regulatory ambiguity, lack of standardized accounting treatment, position size limitations, and the absence of a clear prime brokerage infrastructure for institutional-scale prediction market exposure. Honestly, it doesn’t look like it’s stopping anytime soon. Click here to stay up to date on the latest moves in prediction markets.
An Alabama parent published an op-ed warning that there's effectively a bookie in every college freshman's pocket — Kalshi and Polymarket allow users as young as 18 to bet on sports from a dorm room regardless of state gambling laws. For a college freshman with a Venmo balance and a favorite team, the distinction between a financial exchange and a sportsbook is completely meaningless.
Gibraltar launched a distinct prediction market authorisation regime in July — and founders keep missing what it actually means. A Gibraltar licence is a Gibraltar licence. It covers Gibraltar. Every market you want to enter — the US, the EU, anywhere else — comes with its own requirements to work through on their own terms. The regime brings real obligations: governance, market integrity controls against manipulation and insider dealing, segregated client funds, AML and sanctions compliance.
Malta is emerging as the European jurisdiction of choice for prediction market operators — the core regulatory question in Europe mirrors the US fight: financial product or gaming service? Malta's framework is flexible enough to accommodate both classifications, which is why it keeps appearing on the shortlist. As France geoblocks Polymarket and Ireland threatens High Court proceedings, operators are quietly mapping their European options.
ProphetX just raised $35 million and signed B2B partnerships with Pikkit and EPICK — and the strategy worth watching isn't the consumer app. It's the B2B infrastructure play. ProphetX received CFTC approval in June as a Designated Contract Market and clearing organization — not a sportsbook licensed state by state. The bet is becoming the clearing layer other platforms build on, rather than competing for users directly. If it works, ProphetX won't win by beating Kalshi at its own game. It'll win by becoming the infrastructure Kalshi quietly runs on.
Follow the $50 Billion Buy-In
Wall Street just bet billions on a small collection of stocks.
And after a volatile first half of 2026, it looks like they’re about to shift even more.
MarketBeat’s updated 10 Best Stocks to Own in 2026 report reveals the 10 names attracting fresh capital right now.
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