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Vegas Inc: Gaming industry points to financial literacy and player safety in the prediction market fight.
The casino lobby has a new study, and it’s aimed squarely at prediction market users.
The American Gaming Association found that prediction market users rate their math skills as highly as sports bettors do, but score like people who don’t gamble at all.
The AGA has filed a brief backing New Jersey’s petition asking the Supreme Court to decide whether states can regulate prediction markets, alongside the NFL and a coalition of 39 states plus D.C.
The courts are already split: the Third Circuit ruled that Kalshi falls under the CFTC, while the Ninth Circuit upheld Nevada’s ban on its sports contracts.
Brennan Center: New study finds prediction markets are influencing voters, and voters want them regulated.
Voters say they don’t trust prediction market odds. They believe them anyway.
In a Brennan Center-funded survey of 1,994 registered voters, a candidate favored by prediction markets was seen as 10 to 20 points more likely to win, regardless of what the polls said.
Fewer than one in five voters think election prediction markets are accurate, and more than 80% want them more tightly regulated or banned outright.
The odds now reach the public through media partnerships with CNN, CNBC and Fox News, and more than $220 million has been wagered on the 2026 midterms.
RealClearMarkets: Stop the 50-state shakedown of prediction markets.
The other side of the Supreme Court fight is making its case.
In a RealClearMarkets op-ed, Cody Carbone argues that the states are asking the Supreme Court to break one federal market into 50 separate ones, when Congress gave the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction in 1974.
He points to a ruling last week in which a federal judge in Chicago found that Kalshi’s title-game contracts are likely swaps, blocking Illinois from enforcing its sports wagering rules against Kalshi and Coinbase.
He calls the state push a revenue grab, noting that Illinois wrote a fee on prediction market trades into its fiscal 2027 budget: 1.75% on the first 5 million sports trades a year and 3.5% after that.
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