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Prediction Market Edge
July 2, 2026
What does J.D. Vance and Jeffrey Epstein have in common?
If you said it’s that they both have prediction markets about them you’d be correct!
Not only that, but today, serious capital is positioning for the political survival of nearly every major leader on the planet. Simultaneously.
And it’s NOT who you’d think it is.
Also, France in here too…
Let’s get into it.
Oh, but first, a note on housekeeping. Tomorrow while the stock market is closed the prediction markets remain open.
Which means you’ll be receiving tomorrow’s email on schedule.
🌍 THE GLOBAL LEADERSHIP EXIT— WHO'S NEXT OUT?
Let's start with the biggest market in this cluster.
🐳 NO — Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027? — $3.8M volume. The biggest leadership survival market on the platform. Whales say Lula stays.
🐳 NO — Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? — $3.1M volume. Despite the war — whales don't see Zelenskyy going anywhere.
🐳 NO — Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027? — $2.7M volume. France's Prime Minister. Faded.
🐳 NO — Xi Jinping out before 2027? — $2.1M volume. The most powerful man in China. Whales say he stays.
🐳 NO — Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? — $1.0M volume. Faded.
🐳 NO — Will no listed leader be out before 2027? — $936.2K volume. Someone goes. Whales just don't know who.
🐳 YES — Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? — $277.2K volume. The one name getting backed for the exit.
🐳 NO — Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? — $316.6K volume. Faded.
🐳 NO — Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? — $196.1K volume. Faded.
The whale picture: Starmer is the only leader the market is actively backing for an exit.
Everyone else ( Xi, Putin, Zelenskyy, Lula, Netanyahu ) looks to survive through 2026 according to serious money.
If someone goes. Starmer is who.
But we’ll see!
🗳️ 2028 — JD VANCE JUST ENTERED THE CONVERSATION
While everyone debated Eric Trump and Byron Donalds, another name quietly accumulated $2.3 million in whale backing.
🐳 YES — Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — $2.3M volume. The sitting Vice President. Smart money is backing him — hard.
🐳 YES — Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — $722.6K volume. Two separate markets. Same direction. Significant conviction.
The whale picture on 2028: Vance just emerged as the most credible Republican name in the entire field. $2.3M is bigger than Eric Trump. Bigger than Byron Donalds.
The incumbent VP advantage is he’s still getting priced in.
🇫🇷 FRANCE 2027 — ONE NAME GETTING BACKED, EVERYONE ELSE BURIED
🐳 YES — Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? — $162.5K volume. The National Rally leader. The only name getting backed in the French race.
🐳 NO — Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? — $165.1K volume. Faded.
🐳 NO — Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? — $18.0K volume. Faded.
🤔 ONE MORE THING
🐳 NO — Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? — $349.3K volume. Someone put $349,000 on this question. Whales say no.
Happy July, if you’re on vacation then have a great long weekend.
So many big things are on the way for this newsletter as well as prediction market whales.
Thank you so much for being part of this journey.
Oh, and I know I know, mentioning $349,000 sitting on whether Jeffrey Epstein is confirmed alive before year end is ridiculous.
But as we cover in this newsletter, the prediction markets are an insightful look not just at markets and money, but the behavior of humans no matter how rational.
It reminds me of that Bible verse where your treasure is there your heart will be also. Well, in prediction markets, sometimes where people’s money is, is where their brain is!
Either way, at the end of the day, no matter how you slice it, whales are already positioned on all of it.
Are you?
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Don’t Wait for the OpenAI IPO
OpenAI and Anthropic could be two of the biggest AI IPOs Wall Street has seen in years.
But investors don’t have to wait for those names to hit the public markets to get exposure to the AI boom.
MarketBeat’s 7 AI Stocks to Buy Now report reveals 7 publicly traded companies already positioned to benefit as the next wave of AI investment moves beyond the private model providers.
These are the stocks investors can buy today, before the IPO crowd rushes in.
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