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Before we get into today's top stories, with the September FOMC meeting just weeks away, many are wondering: Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
This wallet isn't just holding onto a position, they keep coming back and piling in at 1.5 cents YES positions.
In the last 24 hours alone, they've made seven separate buy orders on the same market. $780. $2,766. $2,200. $2,169. $30. $1,436. $1.28. All YES. All at roughly 1 cent.
They now hold 2,205,015 YES shares. Current position value: $25,357. Down $8,355 (-24.78%) since they started building.
Losing money? Sure. Adding anyway? Yes. Seven times in one day.
If the Fed cuts 25 bps in September and this resolves YES, that means 2.2 million shares pay out $2,205,015.
That's a potential $2.2 million payout on a position currently worth $25,000.
Ask your typical “economist”, and they’ll say there’s a better chance the Fed will raise rates.
Full disclosure, this author does have a position in Kalshi the Fed will cut .25 and/or .5 It’s a long shot for sure.
Goldman Sachs thinks the market is already too hawkish, and even they don't expect a rate cut this year.
And the Fed itself hasn't ruled out a hike. Minutes from its July meeting show “several participants favored an increase of 25 basis points,” while “many participants” said further tightening would likely be needed to bring inflation back to 2%. KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk put it plainly: “September is still a live meeting for a hike.”
This wallet is betting on the other 1.5%.
The market says there's a 1.5% chance. This wallet specifically has been dollar-cost averaging into that 1.5% for days — in small increments, repeatedly, methodically — while sitting on a growing loss.
Whether it's the most disciplined conviction trade on this platform right now — or the most expensive lesson in prediction markets — we'll find out in September.
More big news within the last 24 hours is that the CME CEO and the CFTC chairman got into it publicly — and it got spicy!
At the inaugural meeting of the CFTC's Innovation Advisory Committee, CME Group CEO Terry Duffy told CFTC Chairman Michael Selig directly that the agency needed to do more to prevent manipulation on prediction markets. Duffy cited the US Army soldier charged with placing offshore Polymarket bets about Maduro's ouster and the White House teleprompter operator who allegedly bet on Trump's speeches.
Selig's response: "That's fake news." Duffy: "Fake news? OK, that's a cute comment." Then Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara asked Duffy if CME had ever had market manipulation issues — and noted that his regulatory department had more employees than all of Kalshi. "Maybe you should learn a bit about efficiency then," she said. The whole exchange in one room captured the entire prediction market moment: the establishment questioning the newcomers, the newcomers punching back, and the regulator caught in the middle calling criticism fake news.
The cracks in the relationship between traditional market infrastructure and buzzy newcomers are now on the record.
Bloomberg Law published a legal argument that banning political prediction markets would be unconstitutional. Attorneys at Troutman Pepper Locke argue that political event contracts carry genuine expressive and informational content protected by the First Amendment. The core argument: pricing is speech. Every trader's view, registered by placing a trade, feeds into a single price, a collective political forecast. Flag burning and campaign contributions are also conduct, yet both are protected because they carry expressive elements. The STOP Corrupt Bets Act, introduced by Senator Merkley and Representative Raskin, runs into exactly this problem. If the government can't ban political speech, and prediction market trades on political outcomes are a form of political speech, the ban may not survive constitutional scrutiny. This is the argument that could ultimately protect political prediction markets from every state and federal crackdown simultaneously.
Kalshi Research published a working paper analyzing 2,243,741 resolved prediction markets from 2021 through mid-2026 — and the findings are the most comprehensive calibration data the industry has produced. Brier scores decline from approximately 0.087 at a three-month horizon to below 0.02 at market close. Naive accuracy rises from 88.3% to 97.2% over the same span. Markets with over $200,000 in volume record a Brier score of 0.0099 at close — compared to 0.0635 for markets under $10,000. The authors' conclusion: "Kalshi's prices behave like genuine probabilities, and increasingly so as resolution approaches."
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🌙 PREDICTION MARKET MOONSHOT TRADES OF THE DAY
3.6 cents. YES.
This wallet put $1,500 on it yesterday morning.
At 3.6 cents, $1,500 buys roughly 41,600 YES shares. If the Bengals win the 2027 NFL Championship, this position pays out approximately $41,600.
That's a 27x return on a team that hasn't won a Super Bowl in over 30 years.
Someone in Cincinnati is feeling good about Joe Burrow!
4.3 cents. YES.
This wallet put $1,100 on it yesterday morning.
At 4.3 cents, $1,100 buys roughly 25,500 YES shares. If Renan Santos wins the Brazilian presidency — this position pays out approximately $25,500.
That's a 23x return on a candidate most Americans have never heard of.
Someone has. And they put money behind it.
For more moonshot (and non-moonshot) opportunities updated in real time visit Prediction Market Whales.
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