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I’ll tell you about the big trade in a minute.
But speaking of the NFL, the NFL filed an amicus brief urging the Supreme Court to rule on prediction market regulation.
On the first Sunday of this NFL season, $1.8 billion out of $3.3 billion in total prediction market trading was connected to the NFL.
The league is backing New Jersey’s Supreme Court petition, siding with the Sixth and Ninth Circuits against Kalshi’s federal preemption argument.
They want state oversight, a list of prohibited wagers, and an age minimum of 21. The CFTC fired back that the NFL declined to sign a memorandum of understanding that would have enabled better cooperation. Kalshi said it tried to collaborate with the league on integrity issues and received no response.
Worth noting: The league generated $1.8 billion in prediction market volume in one Sunday. That number only grows if SCOTUS takes the case and prediction markets survive under some framework.
An Oklahoma tribe just launched PokkeTrades, a prediction market app built on Kalshi’s infrastructure. The Alabama-Quassarte Tribal Town is the first Oklahoma tribe to enter the prediction market sector. The tribe doesn’t operate its own casinos — its geography within the Muscogee Nation reservation kept it out of Oklahoma’s gaming prosperity.
Chief Wilson Yargee: “Prediction markets offer an opportunity to reach beyond those limits and build revenue for our people.”
Corporate compliance teams are scrambling to catch up with prediction markets. FinTech Global covered a StarCompliance webinar featuring former CFTC enforcement director Ian McGinley and a16z’s Kate Dellolio on the compliance gap.
The core problem: personal account dealing programs built around securities and brokerage accounts don’t capture prediction market trading at all.
An employee with MNPI can trade event contracts on Kalshi and it falls completely outside existing compliance controls. McGinley’s framing: “Firms should ask whether their controls target the behavior they want to stop, whatever the asset or platform.” The Army soldier, the KPMG employee, the White House teleprompter operator, all documented cases. The compliance industry is now responding to what enforcement already found the hard way.
🌙 Daily Prediction Market Moonshot Report
🌊 The Hormuz Convergence —
Something unusual is happening across Hormuz-related markets this morning. Three separate contracts, multiple wallets, all pointing the same direction.
This wallet put $2,000 on YES at 4.1 cents at 2:08 AM. October 15 is three days away.
At 4.1 cents, $2,000 buys roughly 48,800 YES shares. Payout: approximately $48,800.
This is a compound market — both conditions must resolve YES. Three wallets hit it in the last 24 hours:
This wallet — $2,200 at 3.7 cents at 2:02 PM yesterday.
This wallet — $1,100 at 3.7 cents at 5:34 PM yesterday.
The same wallet that bought the October 15 blockade contract, $4,500 at 4.4 cents at 7:46 AM this morning.
That last wallet bought the simple blockade-ends-by-October-15 contract at 2 AM, then came back five hours later and put $4,500 on the compound version that also requires Republicans to win the Senate. Same wallet. Two different bets. Both hinging on a Hormuz deal happening in the next three days.
Combined Hormuz exposure across these trades: $9,800.
This wallet put $1,200 on NO at 4.7 cents, betting the ceasefire does NOT hold through October 15.
Two positions betting the Hormuz deal closes by October 15.
One position betting the ceasefire breaks by October 15. Both expire in 72 hours.
0.8 cents. YES. $2,800.
This wallet put $2,800 on YES at 0.8 cents on the split outcome — Democrats take the Senate, Republicans hold the House — last night.
Three weeks until the midterms. This is now the second wallet we’ve featured buying this exact outcome. At 0.8 cents, $2,800 buys 350,000 YES shares. Payout: approximately $350,000. INSANE.
🏈 The best trade of the week — Eagles vs. Jaguars
Yesterday, this wallet put $1,500 on the Jaguars at 3 cents at 1:12 PM during the London game yesterday.
Here’s what happened next.
Trevor Lawrence found Parker Washington on fourth down to take the lead with 3:20 left. Eagles kicker Jake Elliott gave Philly a one-point lead with eight seconds left.
Philadelphia then — inexplicably — kicked the ball to Jaguars returner Ameer Abdullah instead of booting it into the end zone. Abdullah returned it into Eagles territory with one second left. Jaguars kicker Cam Little hit a 57-yard field goal. Jacksonville 19, Philadelphia 17.
That $1,500 at 3 cents paid out approximately $50,000.
Blu Dot surpasses 2,000% ROAS with self-serve CTV ads
Home furniture brand Blu Dot blew up on CTV with help from Roku Ads Manager. Here’s how:
After a test campaign reached 211,000 households and achieved 1,010% ROAS, the brand went all in to promote its annual sales event. It removed age and income constraints to expand reach and shifted budget to custom audiences and retargeting, where intent was strongest.
The results speak for themselves. As Blu Dot increased their investment by 10x, ROAS jumped to 2,308% and more page-view conversions surpassed 50,000.
“For CTV campaigns, Roku has been a top performer,” said Claire Folkestad, Paid Media Strategist, Blu Dot. “Comping to our other platforms, we have seen really strong ROAS… and highly efficient CPMs, lower than any other CTV partner we've worked with.”
Using Roku Ads Manager, the campaign moved from a pilot to a permanent performance engine for the brand.
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