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Prediction Market Edge

June 19, 2026

This might as well be called "Fed-teenth."

Because today, the whales aren't talking about Iran or The World Cup as much as they’re all in on one thing: what the Fed does next.

Here's where serious money is positioned right now across two FOMC meetings…

Oh, and three IPOs nobody's talking about.

🏦 THE FED — JULY AND SEPTEMBER NOW IN PLAY

With June settled, whale attention has already rotated to the next two meetings.

🐳 YES — Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — $1.2M volume. Smart money sees Warsh holding again.
🐳 NO — Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? — $33.5K volume. By September, whales expect movement.
🐳 YES — Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — $405.6K volume. The bigger bet — a full year without a single cut.
🐳 NO — Fed rate hike in 2026? — $391.9K volume. No hikes either. Whales see a Fed standing completely still.

The whale picture: hold in July, first real crack in September, zero cuts and zero hikes for the year as the base case.

Really getting the impression Warsh “can just do things” and it’s become a wait-and-see Fed until we get closer to the next meeting.

🚀 IPO WATCH — THREE NAMES JUST SHOWED UP

🐳 YES — Anduril IPO before 2027? — $7.6K volume. Defense tech. Early money already in.
🐳 NO — Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? — $6.5K volume. Crypto exchange — whales say not this year.
🐳 YES — Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? — $10.0K volume.

All in all, great close to the week.

Two Fed meetings still in play.

Three IPOs already getting priced by people who aren't waiting for the prospectus.

And plenty more events and new things in store for you beginning next week!

Remember, things could change in an instant.

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