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Today’s top stories…
Next story, Connecticut ordered nine prediction market companies to stop offering sports bets. Another state, another enforcement action.
Nine companies simultaneously. Connecticut joins Utah, Iowa, Washington, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New York, New Jersey, and a growing list of states taking direct action.
The Supreme Court petition from New Jersey is looking more necessary by the day.
It’s really going to be interesting how much longer companies fight prediction market only companies, while simultaneously build out their own prediction market platforms.
This is a press release but FYI ProphetX partnered with Agg Market to bring its full suite of sports event contracts to Solana. Every ProphetX contract is now accessible through Agg's Solana-based integration with 100% market coverage from day one.
ProphetX is America's first CFTC-regulated sports-native prediction market. The partnership doesn't change the execution or settlement framework of listed contracts — it just adds an onchain access channel.
Solana is also supporting a builder grants program for new dApps built on ProphetX with Agg. The prediction market infrastructure buildout on Solana is accelerating.
Another thing…
CNBC's report that $3,500 can move 97% of midterm prediction markets raised the manipulation concern we addressed yesterday, that a small bet could shift odds enough to change how a candidate is perceived. But the framing deserves pushback.
The entire manipulation thesis rests on an assumption that voters will see a prediction market probability, treat it as ground truth, and change their behavior.
Meaning, if they see a candidate favored, they’ll just vote for the favored candidate.
Honestly, isn’t that's a pretty dim view of the American voter?
If a candidate is losing ground, the answer isn't to worry about a $3,500 bet moving a thin market on a random prediction market platform.
It’s their job, to make the case and get people to the polls, make their message land, win the argument.
The idea that voters are going to see Candidate X trading at 35% on Polymarket and decide not to bother voting is the same logic that said Nate Silver's models would suppress turnout.
It didn't happen. Annoying!
This is wild, so, 79% of prediction market users have lost money, and many are borrowing to keep betting….
Outrageous! The finding lands the same week Novig released a nearly-nude Sydney Sweeney ad to recruit new users and Polymarket enlisted LeBron James for a national campaign.
Look, the customer acquisition race is accelerating. They’ll do anything to get our attention. and customers run to the platforms often without research, discipline, or tools and resources to help them.
But does it also mean 21% MAKE money?
Last night, watching the live feed, and the whale consensus there were two events that stood out:
The Yankees vs. Rockies had 42 of 48 active whales backed New York. 88% whale agreement. 83% strength. 71% confidence.
$444,500 in whale volume across 111 trades. The Yankees were a clean signal.
So I combo’d the Yankees with another team playing last night.
One that seemed to plan accordingly, give their bodies enough rest, that also had action inside the platform for a 121% return.
The under came in on the live feed too but I don’t have a screen shot of that now.
Does that make me part of the 21%?
Or does that mean the 79% who lose money miss the tools available to them?
🌙 Daily Prediction Market Moonshot Report
🗳️ The 2028 Democratic Bench — One Wallet, Two Longshots
This wallet went shopping the 2028 Democratic field yesterday and came back with two receipts.
4:08 PM: Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — $3,100 on YES at 0.2 cents.
Same wallet, later: Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — $1,200 on YES at 3.1 cents.
Same wallet. Two names. The Virginia Governor and the Arizona Senator.
At 0.2 cents, $3,100 buys 1,550,000 YES shares on Spanberger. Payout if she wins the nomination: approximately $1,550,000.
At 3.1 cents, $1,200 buys roughly 38,700 YES shares on Kelly. Payout if he wins: approximately $38,700.
It really looks like they’re scalping, sitting, waiting for a news story that causes the candidates to jump 1-2%…
Or, someone built a Democratic dark horse portfolio at the absolute floor of the market.
We’ll see!
🏦 The Fed Cut Wallets — Betting Against the CPI
This morning the August CPI report dropped, and it was not good news for rate cut believers.
Inflation persisted in August, potentially locking in a Fed rate hike. The New York Times is running live updates. Bloomberg has PIMCO calling it a setup for "risk management hikes." Barron's says markets are now eyeing a hike. Warsh already warned at Jackson Hole. The CPI just confirmed it.
And yet.
This wallet put $1,500 on YES at 0.4 cents on a September cut at 8:51 AM this morning — after the CPI report dropped.
This one put $1,000 on YES at 0.5 cents last night — before the report, but in the face of every signal pointing toward a hike.
At 0.4 cents, $1,500 buys 375,000 YES shares. Payout if the Fed somehow cuts anyway: approximately $375,000.
These wallets are now betting on a September cut in the face of elevated CPI, Warsh's Jackson Hole warning, futures pricing a 60%+ chance of a hike, and PIMCO calling for risk management hikes on Bloomberg this morning.
More moonshot opportunities updated in real time at Prediction Market Whales.
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