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April 2, 2026

Which Companies Will Be Removed From the S&P 500 This Quarter?

The S&P 500 is not a passive index. It's a managed one.

A committee decides who's in and who's out, and while most removals are triggered by corporate events like acquisitions, mergers, or bankruptcies, the committee also has discretion to remove companies that no longer fit the profile of America's 500 most important publicly traded businesses.

Kalshi is running a market on which companies get removed between April 1 and June 30, 2026.

The resolution rule says if S&P Global officially announces a removal OR the change takes effect during that window, it resolves Yes. Whichever comes first.

Here's how the crowd is pricing each name and a little backstory on each one…

Norwegian Cruise Line — 46%

As of April 2nd, Norwegian has the highest odds.

And when we look at the balance sheet, it's not hard to see why.

NCLH is carrying roughly $14-15 billion in debt with a debt-to-equity ratio above 600%. Net leverage is expected to stay above 5.2-5.5x through 2026. Interest coverage is only about 2-3x.

Management recently cut its 2026 outlook, guiding EPS below analyst expectations and net yields roughly flat despite strong industry demand, which implies weaker commercial execution than peers like Royal Caribbean.

The stock has been highly volatile. Add a weak market cap plus this risk profile is exactly the combination that can push a company toward the borderline S&P 500 departure.

The index committee doesn't remove companies for being unfashionable. But it does swap out borderline large-caps when better candidates emerge and fundamentals deteriorate.

NCLH doesn’t look like it’s in existential distress. But it's the kind of highly leveraged, execution-challenged name that looks vulnerable.

Intel — 40%

Intel is more complicated. 40% removal probability sounds alarming for a company that's been in the S&P 500 for decades.

Intel is in the middle of a foundry transition built around its 18A process node — a "bet the company" moment by most analyst accounts.

The company dropped 17-18% in a single session after weak Q1 guidance, with revenue and profit coming in below expectations. Nvidia and AMD are leading in AI data-center compute, Intel is playing catch-up, and if 18A disappoints, the bear case is a prolonged period of subpar margins and share loss while capex stays enormous.

What would actually have to happen is a multi-year deterioration scenario where the turnaround fails so badly that Intel's market cap shrinks into mid-cap territory. Could be tough to pull off this quarter.

But with the conflict in the Middle East, AI disruption, anything could happen.

LyondellBasell — 31%

The chemicals cycle has been brutal.

LyondellBasell posted a significant 2025 net loss and just cut its dividend from roughly $1.37 to $0.69 per share — a signal of balance sheet caution that rattled income investors. The execs are framing things as a strategic pivot rather than a collapse.

But the lost dividend stalwart profile combined with earnings volatility makes it a weak sentiment story. They still a major global petrochemical player with multi-billion dollar EBITDA and an active turnaround plan.

No obvious near-term forced removal catalyst absent a surprise deal or further dramatic market-cap deterioration. 31% feels like the market pricing cyclical stress, not heat.

Hasbro — 22%

The toy and entertainment company behind brands like Monopoly, Transformers, and Magic: The Gathering has had a volatile stretch.

The stock dropped 11% after a recent earnings report and has faced estimate cuts. But 12-month performance has actually been strong, and recent earnings beat expectations. Analysts see modest EPS growth into 2026.

This screens more like volatility around a business transition than structural disqualification from large-cap status. 22% feels generous for a name that isn't in a death spiral.

Charter Communications — 14%

Down 30-50% from prior highs and trading near multi-year lows. The fallen giant narrative is real. But Charter is generating significant free cash flow, running a large national broadband network, and recently received regulatory clearances for sizable transactions. It remains a clear-cut large-cap core telecom name with active capital markets access.

Removal this quarter would require a corporate event, not just underperformance. 14% feels about right.

The Trade Desk — 11%

Down more than 80% over 15 months. The worst performer in the S&P 500 since the start of 2025. Over $47 billion in market value wiped out. Seven analyst downgrades this year. Buy ratings down from 23 to 19.

Bloomberg's reporting this week was pointed: "Trade Desk used to be a leading growth company in an appealing industry, but its competitive position is now under assault. The story has changed, and I just don't see how it changes back."

And yet — the S&P 500 removal bar isn't "the story has changed." It's market cap falling toward mid-cap territory and staying there, or a corporate event forcing a change. Trade Desk's competitive struggles are real and the stock reflects them. But it's still a large-cap ad-tech platform with genuine scale. The committee doesn't remove companies for losing ground to Amazon.

11% feels about right. The risk is real but the timeline is wrong.

Deckers Outdoor — 14%

Deckers Brands is the parent company behind UGG boots, HOKA running shoes, and Teva sandals, a multi-brand footwear company that sells through both wholesale retailers and its own stores and e-commerce.

The stock had a significant selloff — down around 50% at one point over 12 months — but the underlying business has been performing well. Revenue and EPS beats, mid-to-high single digit revenue growth, robust margins.

UGG and HOKA continue to drive genuine consumer demand. Some analysts are framing this as a buy-the-dip S&P 500 underdog rather than any doomsday scenario.

Dollar Tree — 10%

Dollar Tree is a discount variety retailer with thousands of small-box stores — historically known for the roughly $1.25 for everything model, now shifting to a multi-price format with items up to $7 to protect margins.

The fundamentals are genuinely deteriorating. Multi-year sales declines, weak returns on capital, and real questions about whether the discount model works at current cost structures. Have you been inside a Dollar Tree lately?

Solventum — 10%

Recently spun out of 3M and now operating as an independent medical technology company. Analysts have been upgrading it and calling it undervalued with decent growth prospects.

As a fresh spin, the more common index dynamic is gradual addition to appropriate benchmarks as it builds trading history, not quick removal. The chart looks like the price is still trying to find its footing. Is 10% too high for a company that was just added to the index?

Why Did Kalshi Choose These Specific Companies?

It's worth asking. Because if none of these companies actually get removed this quarter (and the base case for most of them is that they won't), so you have to wonder what the point of the market was in the first place?

The answer isn't mysterious. It's good contract design.

It doesn’t look like Kalshi would pick these names because of any inside knowledge or leaked index committee discussions. Maybe it’s as simple as that. Also maybe they picked them because each one ticks the boxes that make for a functional event contract on a federally regulated exchange.

The outcome is binary and objectively verifiable. "Company X is removed from the S&P 500 between April 1 and June 30" resolves cleanly from S&P Global's official index change notices. No interpretation required. No contested resolution.

That's exactly what the CFTC framework demands. The other thing is each name is borderline but credible. None of these are rock-solid mega-caps that would make a Yes contract laughable. None are obvious zombies or old SPACS where Yes is a near-certainty.

Norwegian Cruise Line has a debt load that makes you nervous. Intel has a foundry bet that could still go wrong. Dollar Tree has deteriorating fundamentals. The probability on each sits somewhere between trivially zero and obviously certain, which is exactly where you need it to be to attract traders on both sides.

Third, each name comes with a narrative that traders already care about. High leverage and guidance cuts at Norwegian. (have you been on a cruise lately?) AI execution risk at Intel. (Software-apocalypse) Strategy questions at Dollar Tree. Dividend cuts at LyondellBasell. Cord-cutting pressure at Charter. The Trade Desk's 80% drawdown. These are companies fighting it out like any other.

So will any of these tickers actually get removed?

We’ll see.

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