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I knew this day would come.
One trader on X put it best last night that the midterms were a great day for the “truth machine” argument, and maybe the beginning of the end.
The markets called the blue wave. Now the blue wave gets to decide what happens to the markets.
In other news, I’m working on a new parlay strategy:
🏒 Last Night’s Parlay
Two NHL legs, one ticket:
✅ Predators to beat the Hurricanes
✅ Over 6.5 goals in Ducks vs. Canucks
$24.99 in, $72.78 out, a $47.79 profit (+191%).
More to come…
Annnyyywwwaaayyy….
Today’s top stories:
Front Office Sports: Prediction markets could face a bipartisan reckoning after the midterms.
Whoever wins the midterms, prediction markets could end up on the losing side.
Both parties are lining up against the industry. Prediction market bills have been proposed in at least 15 states, Sens. Adam Schiff and John Curtis have a bill that would treat sports contracts as gambling, and Sen. Ted Cruz plans one banning them without state or tribal approval.
Utah’s attorney general filed felony charges against Kalshi and its co-founders last week, and DraftKings and FanDuel pulled sports and political contracts from the state. The CFTC, meanwhile, has sued 10 states, including Utah, to keep sports contracts alive.
Congress can’t easily remove CFTC chair Michael Selig, the agency’s only commissioner, but experts say it could use spending bills to block the CFTC from funding litigation or new rules, and call platform executives in for hearings.
Variety: Americans wagered $1.9 billion on prediction markets on the midterms.
Going into Election Day, nearly $1.9 billion was riding on the results.
As of Monday night, about $1.3 billion had traded on Kalshi and about $600 million on Polymarket, per a Washington Post analysis. That’s still well short of the $3.6 billion bet on the 2024 presidential race on Polymarket alone.
Both platforms gave Democrats a 78% chance of winning the Senate. Polymarket put their odds of flipping the House at 95%, and Kalshi at 93.9%.
Polymarket says it has investigated dozens of midterm trades for insider trading and manipulation.
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