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Texas doctors are calling for a minimum age of 21 to participate in prediction markets — 18, apparently, the age at which you can go to war, buy cigarettes, and sign a contract, is not enough. The Texas Medical Association is asking state lawmakers to restrict prediction market participation to adults 21 and older and limit advertising near schools, parks, and on social media platforms that cater to adolescents.
Pediatrician Lindy McGee, who chaired TMA's committee on child and adolescent health, said: "The adolescent brain is primed to take risks. The younger you start, the more likely you are to become addicted to it."
That may sound compelling. But it's worth asking what the research actually shows.
The major study cited — Adolescent Gambling, Research and Clinical Implications — admits plainly: "The nature of these associations remains incompletely understood as much data have been derived from cross-sectional and/or retrospective studies, and relatively few longitudinal investigations have been performed to date."
In other words: we don't actually know.
Another frequently cited study from 2005 — Jacobs — warns that youth problem gambling may increase linearly with gambling availability.
But the same reviewer immediately notes a "lack of reliable predictive models" and calls the claim "a starting point for further debate." Not a finding. A starting point.
And where exactly is the data supposed to come from? Caesars? DraftKings?
There is no clean longitudinal dataset on youth gambling outcomes because the data doesn't exist at scale.
The research the Texas Medical Association is leaning on is old, self-admitted as incomplete, and built on cross-sectional snapshots rather than long-term studies.
The adolescent brain climbing trees doesn't calculate wind factors and altitude first. Kids climb trees because that's what kids do. Should that generalizes prediction market addiction in a way that justifies a blanket age-21 restriction?
Most forms of gambling remain illegal in Texas.
Except state lottery tickets. You can buy as many as you want as soon as you turn 18.
In other news…
Senators Padilla and Warner sent a letter demanding answers from prediction market companies paying influencers to spread election disinformation. Two Democratic senators are now formally investigating whether prediction market platforms are funding influencer networks to spread misleading content about election outcomes.
With nearly $200 million already traded on 2026 midterm markets and the fake poll scandal from last week still fresh, the political heat on prediction markets from the left is intensifying simultaneously on multiple fronts, the NYC Council probe, the Padilla/Warner letter, the STOP Corrupt Bets Act, and state-level lawsuits.
The regulatory heat is still on!
Prediction market traders are betting Oura will list above its $16 billion target valuation. Polymarket gives a 53% chance Oura closes its first trading day above $17.5 billion, with 28% odds it crosses $20 billion.
Bloomberg reported Oura is seeking to raise up to $3 billion in a US listing possible as soon as September, with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Allen & Co, and Jefferies managing the deal. $300,637 in prediction market volume on the IPO already. Only 4% odds the listing doesn't happen before January 2027.
Big institutional investors are quietly building an OTC prediction market alongside the retail exchanges. Risk.net reported that an over-the-counter market for event contracts is emerging in the shadow of Kalshi and Polymarket, allowing institutional investors to execute multimillion-dollar trades bilaterally away from exchanges.
Individual deals as large as $10 million. Some transactions reference listed event contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket as benchmarks but execute privately. This is exactly what happened in fixed income and derivatives markets before electronic trading — institutional players built parallel OTC infrastructure because exchange minimums and public price discovery didn't suit their needs.
🔥 THE POLYMARKET REBATE CONTROVERSY?
A drama played out on Polymarket's Discord this week that's worth noting. Not because it's a scandal, (regardless of how anons on social media frame it) but because it exposes a genuine tension in how prediction markets are structured.
A user called "Bonereaper", apparently a large, active taker on Polymarket, was allegedly given a custom fee rebate by Polymarket. When the community found out, the reaction was swift.
The argument from makers in the Discord: giving a toxic taker zero fees takes money directly from the maker pool, as explicitly stated in Polymarket's own documentation. Rebates come from the pool. If a taker gets rebated, makers fund it.
Polymarket CEO Suhail Kakar responded on X:
"We've been testing custom rebates with some active takers as a way to generally lower fees and see if it helps volume. It's an experiment, not a hidden deal, and it's not limited to one account or funder. If you're an active taker you most probably already got an email from me about it."
🌙 Daily Prediction Market Moonshot Report…
1.4 cents. YES. Then 2.8 cents. YES. Same wallet. Three hours apart.
This wallet put $1,100 on YES at 1.4 cents at 8:42 PM. Then came back at 11:42 PM and put another $1,000 on YES at 2.8 cents. Same wallet. Same candidate. Two bites at the same longshot in one night.
Augusto Cury is a Brazilian psychiatrist and motivational speaker. At 1.4 cents someone thinks he wins the Brazilian presidency. At 2.8 cents the same wallet doubled down after the price moved against them.
Combined payout if Cury wins: roughly $114,000.
Does someone in this market knows something about Brazilian politics the rest of us don't? Or they just really believe in the psychiatrist.
2.0 cents. YES.
This wallet put $1,000 on Ofer Winter — a former IDF general — becoming Israel's next Prime Minister at 6:13 AM this morning.
At 2 cents, $1,000 buys 50,000 YES shares. If Winter wins — payout: approximately $50,000.
With Israel's political situation in flux amid the ongoing conflict, someone sees Winter's military background as the path to leadership. But is it enough?
2.9 cents. YES.
This wallet put $1,000 on the Pennsylvania Governor at 2:11 AM this morning.
At 2.9 cents, $1,000 buys roughly 34,400 YES shares. If Shapiro wins the presidency in 2028 — payout: approximately $34,400.
Two years out. Still early, more political stuff to come…
3.3 cents. YES.
This wallet put $1,000 on two Fed cuts before December 31 at 4:35 AM this morning.
At 3.3 cents, $1,000 buys roughly 30,300 YES shares. Payout if the Fed cuts twice in 2026: approximately $30,300.
One cut is already being priced as a longshot. Two cuts before year end at 3.3 cents suggests the market sees the double-cut scenario as nearly impossible. This wallet disagrees — and paid $1,000 to say so at dawn.
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