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June 16, 2026
I’ll get to SpaceX in a minute…
But first look at the todays top stories:
Robinhood's prediction market revenue is projected to go from $150 million in 2025 to nearly $600 million in 2026…. because of the World Cup.
If you think things are moving fast, check this out: Many people are still asking whether the Iranian regime falls.
The problem with that is the smart money already moved past that question.
They're betting on who sits in the chair when the dust settles.
One name is getting $501,000 in whale backing while every other candidate gets buried.
And it’s not who you think.
That name is Mojtaba Khamenei.
The Supreme Leader's own son.
Not a reformist. Not a military man. Not a technocrat.
The son.
However, there’s a dozen others who might stand in his way…
Here's the complete Iran succession picture, plus everything else serious money is positioning on right now:
🇮🇷 IRAN SUCCESSION — THE COMPLETE WHALE PICTURE
Every candidate. Every position. All the money.
🐳 YES — Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — $501K volume. The Supreme Leader's son. The one name getting backed.
🐳 NO — Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — $315.9K volume. Khomeini's grandson — faded.
🐳 NO — Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — $301K volume. MEK opposition leader — faded hard.
🐳 NO — Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — $288.9K volume. The former hardliner — faded.
🐳 NO — Will there be no head of state in Iran end of 2026? — $287K volume. The chaos scenario — faded.
🐳 NO — Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — $286.8K volume. Current foreign minister — faded.
🐳 NO — Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — $224.4K volume. MEK co-founder — faded.
🐳 NO — Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — $223.1K volume. Former judiciary chief — faded.
🐳 NO — Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — $209.1K volume. The reformist — faded.
🐳 NO — Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — $168.9K volume. Parliament insider — faded.
🐳 NO — Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — $151K volume. IRGC-linked — faded.
🐳 NO — Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — $110K volume. Former defense minister — faded.
🐳 NO — Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — $102.4K volume. Faded.
🐳 NO — Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — $40.4K volume. Faded.
🐳 NO — Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — $35.2K volume. The Shah's son — faded.
🐳 NO — Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — $16.8K volume. Faded.
The whale picture on Iran succession:
Seventeen candidates. Sixteen getting buried. One getting backed.
Mojtaba Khamenei — the Supreme Leader's son — is the only name with serious whale conviction behind it.
Smart money isn't betting on regime change. They're betting on dynasty.
That's a thesis. Not a guess.
🌍 THE BIG MACRO CALLS
🐳 NO — Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? — $15.1M volume. The biggest alien market on the platform. Whales say no disclosure coming.
🐳 NO — Putin out as President of Russia by December 31? — $2.9M volume. Smart money doesn't see Putin going anywhere.
🐳 YES — Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? — $3.3M volume. Whales expect this announcement soon.
🐳 NO — France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? — $862.8K volume. European military action faded.
🐳 NO — Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30? — $2.1M volume. No peace deal this month.
⚽ WORLD CUP — THE FLIP THAT MATTERS
Something changed this week.
🐳 YES — Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — $4.6M volume. Spain flipped to YES. Defending champions getting whale backing now.
🐳 NO — Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — $16.5M volume. Massive volume fading the African dark horse.
🐳 YES — Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — $781.7K volume. Smart money backing Colombia.
🐳 YES — Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by July 31? — $362.3K volume. Direction flipped to YES. Whales now expect the shipping lanes to clear by end of July.
🚀 SPACEX — VOLUME EXPLODING
🐳 YES — Will SpaceX IPO by August 31? — $151.4K volume. (so far), until it closes if it hasn’t yet there is more to come.
I really hope you see this before it's too late.
Seventeen candidates for Iran's next head of state.
Sixteen getting buried.
One getting $501,000 in whale backing.
By the time this resolves, the positioning windows could be closed.
The wallets that moved hundreds of thousands of dollars on these names didn't wait for CNN.
They moved first.
In the meantime, if you want to see who's worth following (and who isn't)…
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