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First the top stories:
Jump Trading doubled its prediction market team to ride record volume driven by the World Cup. Jump is one of the more sophisticated quantitative trading firms to get involved with prediction markets.
Trump's teleprompter operator was placed on unpaid leave after reports he used advance knowledge of presidential speeches to trade prediction markets. This may be the case study regulators have been waiting for. Expect it to become exhibit A in every congressional hearing on prediction market oversight for the next two years.
Pascal raised $9 million to challenge Kalshi and Polymarket. Another serious player. They plan to be direct competitors to Kalshi and Polymarket as they improve product, have lower fees, and expand market selection faster than they otherwise would.
But Kalshi is still evolving and launching new markets…
Kalshi launched prediction markets for FDA approvals and clinical trials. First-order: biopharma traders now have a regulated venue to express views on drug approval timelines. Look, if FDA approval markets develop deep liquidity, they become genuinely informative signals for clinical trial outcomes. The kind of signal that could move biotech stocks before the data readout. We’ll see how this plays out.
Soon there will be nothing you can’t speculate on.
Unlike the presidential election in South Korea where $1.2 million in whale capital has already picked the winner.
Beyond that, the AI race is heating up, and more..
Let’s look at where the major capital is flowing in prediction markets…
🇰🇷 SOUTH KOREA — THE FULL STORY
🐳 YES — Will South Korea hold a presidential election in 2026? — $892.4K volume. Smart money certain the election proceeds.
🐳 YES — Will Yoon Suk-yeol be released from prison before December 31? — $743.1K volume. The impeached former president. Smart money backing his release before year end.
🐳 YES — Will Lee Jae-myung win the 2026 South Korean presidential election? — $1.2M volume. The opposition leader. Smart money's pick — by a wide margin.
🐳 NO — Will Kim Moon-soo win the 2026 South Korean presidential election? — $743.1K volume. Faded.
🐳 NO — Will Han Duck-soo win the 2026 South Korean presidential election? — $412.3K volume. Faded.
The whale picture on South Korea: The election happens. Yoon gets released. Lee Jae-myung wins. A complete political transition being priced in real time.
🌍 THE GLOBAL LEADERSHIP BOARD — WHO HOLDS, WHO GOES
The ones holding:
🐳 YES — Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be president of Turkey on December 31? — $287.4K volume. Erdoğan holds.
🐳 NO — Will Turkey hold early elections before 2027? — $198.3K volume. No snap election.
🐳 YES — Will Nayib Bukele be president of El Salvador on December 31? — $312.4K volume. The Bitcoin president. Holds.
🐳 YES — Will Viktor Orbán be prime minister of Hungary on December 31? — $198.3K volume. Orbán holds.
🐳 YES — Will Giorgia Meloni be prime minister of Italy on December 31? — $287.4K volume. Meloni holds.
🐳 YES — Will Emmanuel Macron be president of France on December 31? — $412.3K volume. Macron holds through year end.
🐳 YES — Will Pedro Sánchez be prime minister of Spain on December 31? — $198.3K volume. Sánchez holds.
The ones going:
🐳 NO — Will Olaf Scholz return to German politics before 2027? — $143.2K volume. The former chancellor — not coming back.
🐳 NO — Will Alberto Fernández return to Argentine politics before 2027? — $143.2K volume. Argentina's former president — faded.
🇦🇷 ARGENTINA 2027 — THE MILEI MARKET
🐳 YES — Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentine presidential election? — $892.4K volume. The chainsaw economist. Smart money backing Milei's reelection — a full year before the vote.
🤖 THE GPT-5.6 MARKETS — THE MOST URGENT AI BET ON THE PLATFORM
🐳 YES — Will GPT-5.6 be released before July 31? — $892.4K volume. Nearly $900,000 backing a release this month. The Commerce Department already approved it. Smart money sees it coming fast.
🐳 YES — Will GPT-5.6 be released before August 15? — $743.1K volume. The extended window — also backed.
🐳 YES — Will OpenAI release a new flagship model before August 31? — $612.3K volume. Smart money seeing the release coming regardless of the exact model name.
The whale picture on OpenAI: GPT-5.6 drops before July 31. If not, before August 15. If not, before August 31. Smart money is highly confident on the timing.
🏁 THE FULL AI MODEL RACE — EVERY LAB, EVERY WINDOW
🐳 YES — Will Meta release Llama 4 before September 30? — $198.3K volume. Smart money backing a Llama 4 drop before fall.
🐳 YES — Will xAI release Grok 4 before September 30? — $143.2K volume. Musk's AI lab — backed for a September release.
🐳 NO — Will Google release Gemini 3.0 before September 30? — $287.4K volume. Google's next major model — faded on the September timeline.
The whale picture on the AI race: OpenAI moves first and fastest. Meta and xAI follow before fall. Google takes longer.
🏆 THE ANTHROPIC POSITION
🐳 YES — Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? — $80.1K volume. Smart money backing Anthropic's model supremacy — for now.
🐳 NO — Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? — $39.4K volume. China's AI champion — faded.
The whale picture on the model race: Anthropic leads through July. OpenAI challenges with GPT-5.6 before the month is out. Google waits.
📊 THE BROADER AI INVESTMENT PICTURE
🐳 NO — AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026? — $332.5K volume. The bubble burst thesis — faded decisively.
🐳 YES — AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? — $3.3K volume. One of the hardest mathematical benchmarks in existence — someone backing a breakthrough before year end.
🐳 YES — Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? — $248.2K volume. Smart money backing continued Anthropic growth.
🐳 NO — Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? — $45.2K volume. Not before fall.
🐳 YES — Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — $155.2K volume. NVIDIA stays on top through year end.
Thank you again for another incredible week.
This newsletter and growing daily and can’t thank you enough for subscribing.
Have a great weekend.
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