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Prediction Market Moonshot Report
This wallet put $785 on Musk at a fifth of a penny, buying a potential 500-times gross payout at the cheapest price on today’s board. 0.2 cents. YES. $785. Oct 26, 11:10 PM
Whether this has wheels or not but a newly reported “Elon 2028” political committee is promoting a Musk presidency write-up occurred despite his constitutional ineligibility as a naturalized citizen born in South Africa.
The group acknowledges the obstacle and says its mission is to change the rule, then win the election, not evidence that Musk himself has launched a campaign.
At 0.2 cents, $785 buys 392,500 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $392,500.
This came up yesterday at 1:14 PM and Oct 27, 3:02 AM.
This wallet bought $966, then came back overnight for about $1,000 more, betting the Fed hikes by half a point or more this week.
0.3 cents. YES. About $2,000 across two buys.
It’s the third longshot Fed bet we’ve flagged in a week: a 25 bps cut at 0.3 cents, “something changes” at 4 cents, and now a jumbo hike.
Plus we have mid-terms coming up. They say rate changes rarely happen this close to mid-terms.
The Fed begins its two-day meeting today with Wall Street expecting a pause, following September’s rate increase. Inflation has reaccelerated, driven partly by energy costs, but recent comments from John Williams and Philip Jefferson have steered expectations away from another immediate hike.
At 0.3 cents, the listed purchases total about $1,966 and buy roughly 655,300 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $655,300.
0.8 cents. YES. About $1,100. Oct 27, 3:14 AM.
This wallet is yet another new buyer on the split-Congress outcome, a day after two other fresh wallets bought it at 0.9 cents.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed Monday put Trump’s approval at 32% and showed registered voters favoring Democrats for Congress by 47% to 36%. Democrats’ Senate path still runs through difficult contests, including Maine, where Susan Collins and Troy Jackson are deadlocked as the party seeks a net gain of four seats.
At 0.8 cents, about $1,100 buys 137,500 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $137,500.
2.8–3.0 cents. YES. About $5,900 across four buys. Oct 27, 7:50 AM–10:37 AM.
This wallet hit the same market four times in under three hours: $1,500 at 3 cents, another $1,500 at 3 cents, $1,400 at 2.8 cents, then a final $1,500 at 3 cents. That makes it the biggest moonshot position on today’s board.
Tampa Bay is one loss from elimination after Milwaukee crushed the Rays 10–1 in Game 3 on Monday, taking a 3–0 series lead. The Brewers broke the game open with an eight-run fifth inning and now sit one victory from their first World Series championship.
At those prices, about $5,900 buys roughly 200,000 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $200,000.
3.4 cents. YES. About $1,000. Oct 27, 7:17 AM.
This wallet put about $1,000 on Likud clearing 35 seats.
Israelis are voting Tuesday in their first national election since the October 7 attack, with Netanyahu facing a tight contest against former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. Winning the largest party tally would not automatically keep Netanyahu in power: the next government needs a coalition controlling at least 61 of the Knesset’s 120 seats.
At 3.4 cents, about $1,000 buys roughly 29,400 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $29,400.
3.4 cents. YES. About $1,700. Oct 27, 6:09 AM.
This wallet put about $1,700 on a Lakers title.
Luka Dončić scored 52 points Sunday as the Lakers beat Utah 132–123, improving to 3–0 after erasing an 18-point deficit. Los Angeles hosts unbeaten Portland on Tuesday, giving its perfect start an early test.
At 3.4 cents, about $1,700 buys 50,000 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $50,000.
3.5 cents. YES. About $1,400. Oct 26, 4:33 PM.
This wallet put about $1,400 on Beshear. It’s the third Democratic nomination longshot we’ve flagged this month, after Booker and Shapiro.
Beshear’s former campaign manager denied a report Monday that the Kentucky governor could announce a presidential campaign before year-end. The speculation follows Beshear’s appearance on “Real Time with Bill Maher,” where he argued that Democratic governors’ records make them strong candidates for the 2028 ticket.
At 3.5 cents, about $1,400 buys 40,000 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $40,000.
4.0 cents. YES. About $1,000. Oct 26, 1:33 PM.
This wallet is back. It’s the same one we flagged Saturday putting about $2,500 on Hilton, plus two DeSantis 2028 bets, in 15 minutes. That’s now about $3,500 on Hilton.
Hilton challenged Beshear on Bill Maher’s show Friday, pointing to California’s unfinished high-speed rail project as a rebuttal to Democratic governors’ claims of effective leadership. He faces Democrat Xavier Becerra on November 3 in a state that has not elected a Republican statewide in two decades.
At 4 cents, about $1,000 buys 25,000 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $25,000.
***Share counts use the reported purchase prices and notionals; rounded trade amounts produce estimates. Payouts are total proceeds, not net profits, exclude fees and assume shares are held through resolution.
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