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March 26, 2026

Could Oil Hit $100 Today?

WTI Crude Oil Settles Above $94 Today? 61% Say Yes

This prediction market event closes at 2:30pm ET.

Not next week. Not next month. Today.

Kalshi is running three simultaneous WTI settlement contracts for today's close: $94 or above at 61%, $95 or above at 45%, $96 or above at 21%. $99 or above- 6%.

Those numbers together tell you exactly what the crowd thinks happens at the ICE settlement this afternoon — oil lands somewhere in the $94-$95 range, with real tail risk of a push toward $96 +

Why oil is moving today

Peace talks with Iran are failing. That's the short version.

The longer version is that the Strait of Hormuz — which handles roughly 20% of global oil flows — remains effectively closed, Iran is rejecting ceasefire talks publicly and forcefully, and the market is starting to price a scenario where this doesn't resolve quickly or cleanly.

Brent crude is already trading around $104-106 per barrel this morning. WTI typically trades at a slight discount to Brent.

With Brent at those levels, WTI at $94 isn't a stretch — it's the current reality. The question for this contract isn't whether oil is elevated. It's whether the ICE official settlement price at 2:30pm lands above the specific thresholds.

One X post this morning noted something interesting: Trump's de-escalatory rhetoric appears to be triggered by oil price thresholds.

The FT is reporting the White House is now watching oil as a proxy for public support.

That means the administration has an incentive to talk the price down before the settlement, which could actually cap the move even as fundamentals push higher.

The $97.50 magnet

Earlier this week WTI touched $97.50. The weekly pivot.

That's significant for one reason: markets have a tendency to return to levels where volume was traded.

But there's an equally valid counterargument — levels that get hit once could be one and done.

Remember, the catalyst is primarily geopolitical rather than technical.

The war premium is already priced into today's trade.

For oil to push from $94 to $97 in a single session, we’d need a fresh escalation headline before 2:30pm.

Seems like “peace talks” are in as much of a channel as the price.

The $96 contract at 21% is essentially pricing that scenario — another leg higher on a new headline.

That's not impossible. It's just a specific, news-dependent outcome in a narrow window.

How the resolution works

This is important: the contract resolves on the ICE official settlement price for the front-month WTI contract, published at 2:30pm ET.

No, not that ICE. This one.

NThe official settlement — which uses a volume-weighted calculation in the final minutes of the session. Oil could spike to $96 intraday and settle at $93.80. That's a No on all three contracts.

The settlement price and the intraday price are not the same thing. In a volatile session driven by geopolitical headlines, that gap can be meaningful.

$94 at 61% feels about right given where Brent is trading and the current geopolitical backdrop.

The 39% No is pricing either a de-escalation headline before 2:30, a sharp reversal in the session, or a settlement price that comes in just below the threshold.

Unless something major happens…

But $95 at 45% is the most interesting contract.

The crowd is essentially saying coin flip on whether oil settles above $95 today.

Given that Brent is already well above $100, WTI at $95 settlement might not be aggressive enough.

If Trump posts something, if Iran makes a move, if a tanker incident gets reported before 2:30 — we could see $97 fast.

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