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The New York Mets became the first MLB team to partner with a prediction market — signing a multi-year marketing deal with Novig, a peer-to-peer prediction market platform that MLB recently approved as an authorized league partner. Mets President of Business Operations Lew Sherr called it "another example of our commitment to staying at the forefront of the evolving sports landscape." MLB itself already has a deal with Polymarket. The leagues are moving faster than the regulators. Can you see this rolling out to other teams? Why not, right?
Minnesota's prediction market ban is stalled, and the Star Tribune frames it as the latest front in the Trump administration's broader pressure campaign against the state — the federal judge's preliminary injunction means Kalshi and Polymarket can continue offering wagers on everything from Twins games to whether Mike Lindell wins the Republican gubernatorial primary. The lawsuit blocking the ban came from the CFTC, a federal regulator that is increasingly aligned with the industry. Minnesota passed the first prediction market ban in the country.
Prediction markets are pricing SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 — 93.5% odds the flight happens before October 31, 89% the Super Heavy booster explodes during the test, 62.5% that the chopsticks catch Starship, and just 4.5% that the chopsticks also catch the Super Heavy booster. The market is simultaneously backing a successful test and a booster explosion, which is exactly what's happened on most prior Starship flights.
Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman blasted Governor Hochul for suing Kalshi — arguing the lawsuit could deprive New York State of up to $10 billion in potential revenue. "Hochul just walked away from a lucrative settlement with Kalshi," Blakeman said. "Hochul left billions on the table that could have been used to cut taxes, hire cops and invest in education." New York filed suit against Kalshi on Friday, joining a growing list of states challenging the platform. The political backlash against that decision started within 48 hours.
A federal judge blocked Minnesota's prediction market ban — Judge Katherine Menendez issued a preliminary injunction on July 27 halting enforcement while the lawsuits play out, hinting that CFTC jurisdiction over event contracts may preempt state law. Minnesota's AG calls it gambling. Kalshi says states have no jurisdiction. The ruling could affect liquidity and crypto markets as the regulatory battle continues through the courts.
Former Congressman George Santos is facing insider trading allegations on Kalshi — officials say Santos allegedly tricked bettors on the prediction market platform. The teleprompter operator, the White House staffer, and now a former member of Congress. The insider trading problem inside prediction markets is becoming a recurring news cycle, not a one-off scandal.
The 2026 college football national championship race is already being priced on Polymarket — On3 published the full odds breakdown as of August 1, with a cluster of familiar contenders sharing the top spots and over 30 programs sitting at 1%. Texas A&M and Texas Tech open at 4%, LSU at 5%. The college football market is live before Week 1 kicks off — and On3 is covering prediction market odds the same way it covers recruiting rankings. That's a significant mainstreaming moment for the industry. Check out the latest movement on prediction markets here.
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