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Kalshi just adopted Nasdaq Market Surveillance — bringing cross-market, cross-asset monitoring capabilities into its trading infrastructure for both prediction markets and perpetual-style derivatives. The same Nasdaq that filed a July 31 letter to the CFTC arguing that certain company-specific event contracts — think Apple's next iPhone release date or American Airlines' quarterly load factor — may qualify as security-based swaps and should be delisted unless approved under SEC rules. As Stuart Crowley noted on LinkedIn, Nasdaq is simultaneously building Kalshi's surveillance infrastructure and drawing the legal boundaries around what Kalshi can list. The infrastructure is converging faster than the regulatory framework around it.
There is more money wagered on Kalshi for Maine's Senate contest than any other state besides Texas — a single data point that captures exactly how prediction markets are reshaping the political landscape. Maine is not a swing state by traditional metrics. But Kalshi traders disagree — and they're putting real money behind it. Maryland lawmakers are reportedly rattled by what's happening, and traditional sportsbooks are watching closely as prediction markets absorb political betting volume that used to go nowhere at all.
To catch the capital flows and big moves in real-time, click here.
Kalshi traders think Wednesday's CPI report will come in below the Dow Jones consensus — less than 55% chance headline inflation comes in above 3.3%, against an economist consensus of 3.4%. Core inflation odds put just an 11% chance on a reading above 2.5%, also below the Dow Jones consensus. CNBC is now running prediction market positioning on inflation reports the same way it runs bond market positioning. The crowd has a view on Wednesday's number. We'll see if it's right.
Election officials say prediction markets could erode public trust in election outcomes — Votebeat published a deeply reported piece on how officials fear that when election results differ from what the markets had favored, it could fuel narratives of fraud or manipulation. Nearly $200 million has traded on midterm election outcomes already. Most states have laws prohibiting election betting in some form — but most predate modern prediction markets and haven't been tested in court. Wisconsin is the live case. Kalshi called their advisory "active voter suppression." A University of Wisconsin law professor called Kalshi's constitutional argument one he has "no idea" how to support. The legal showdown is coming.
Wealthsimple is eyeing prediction market expansion into Canada — the Canadian fintech giant's newest product has given Canadians a chance to trade on economic outcomes, and analysts say the company is likely after a much bigger audience. Meanwhile, Oddpool — a YC P26 prediction market startup — just appeared inside the Robinhood app as part of RVII, Robinhood's new seed-stage fund listing on the NYSE. A YC-backed prediction market startup listing on the NYSE through a Robinhood fund. That sentence would have been incomprehensible eighteen months ago.
Elon's Building Something in Tesla's Secret Labs.
Something is being built inside Tesla's facilities that almost no one is talking about — yet.
According to insider sources, Elon Musk has quietly developed a breakthrough product he claims will be "10x bigger than the largest product in history." The target launch date is July 22. And when it drops, the window to position quietly will already be closing.
Most investors will hear about this after the stock has moved. You don't have to be one of them. Our analyst named 3 stocks positioned to ride the launch — with entry guidance, price targets, a bonus 4th supply-chain pick, and a 3-phase playbook for when to buy, add, and take profits.
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