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The Wall Street Journal picked up the Kalshi wash trading story… A WSJ analysis found that trades executed at $5,500 generated more than $5 billion in Ethereum perpetual volume over the past month.
Over one-third of Kalshi's ETH trading volume clustered around that single order size. Kalshi responded with a formal blog post saying wash trading is "explicitly banned in our rulebook" and that the platform has seen "no evidence" of collusion or wash trades.
Their explanation: market makers post resting orders at fixed sizes that can be repeatedly filled by different traders. That's a plausible mechanical explanation, and it's the first time Kalshi has offered one directly. The CFTC didn't return comment requests. Worth noting: a Columbia University study estimated that nearly 25% of Polymarket's volume in the three years prior to 2025 was wash trading, without accusing Polymarket of being complicit.
Vivek Ramaswamy's odds of winning the Ohio Governor race just hit an all-time low on Kalshi. 43% as of Monday, a new floor.
Newsweek covered it directly off Kalshi's own X post. Democrat Amy Acton has led since August 13 and hasn't looked back.
Ohio twice voted for Obama, backed Trump three times in presidential races, and just sent Sherrod Brown packing in 2024.
But Acton, a physician who led Ohio's Health Department, is outperforming expectations in a state Democrats are treating as their best gubernatorial pickup opportunity in 2026. The Cook Political Report rates the Senate race as a toss-up. The governor's race is moving in the same direction.
In December we wrote about Vivek’s inability to close the deal. We’re no longer in that trade. but that doesn’t change the thesis.
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🌙 Daily Prediction Market Moonshot Report
2.0 cents. YES. $1,300.
This wallet put $1,300 on a Bitcoin crash to $40,000 before year end. Yesterday we featured a wallet betting on $45,000. Today a different wallet is at $40,000. Someone is systematically buying Bitcoin downside at the bottom of the probability range.
At 2 cents, $1,300 buys 65,000 YES shares. Payout if BTC hits $40K: approximately $65,000.
5.0 cents. NO. $1,000.
This wallet put $1,000 on the ceasefire NOT holding through September 30 — seven days from now.
We've tracked wallets buying ceasefire YES for weeks. This is the other side. At 5 cents, $1,000 buys 20,000 NO shares. Payout if the ceasefire breaks before September 30: approximately $20,000.
5.6 cents. YES. $1,300. Midnight.
This wallet put $1,300 on Mayor Pete at midnight. Third time we've featured Buttigieg money in the moonshot report. Different wallets each time. Someone keeps coming back to this name.
At 5.6 cents, $1,300 buys roughly 23,200 YES shares. Payout if Buttigieg wins the nomination: approximately $23,200.
6.5 cents. YES. $3,800. 5:52 AM this morning.
This wallet put $3,800 on the Clarity Act passing — after the Senate killed it 49-50 last week.
This is now the third separate wallet buying Clarity Act YES after the vote failed. Either there's a legislative path nobody is reporting — or this is the most stubborn losing trade in the newsletter's history.
At 6.5 cents, $3,800 buys roughly 58,500 YES shares. Payout if the Clarity Act becomes law: approximately $58,500.
6.9 cents. YES. $1,400. 11:45 PM last night.
This wallet put $1,400 on Russia crossing a NATO border before year end.
Article 5 territory. $1,400 at 11:45 PM. Someone thinks the war escalates beyond Ukraine before December 31.
At 6.9 cents, $1,400 buys roughly 20,300 YES shares. Payout if Russia invades a NATO country: approximately $20,300.
More moonshot opportunities updated in real time at Prediction Market Whales.
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