March 5, 2026

Texas Senate Republican Primary — Will Ken Paxton Win?

Look at this chart.

Two lines sitting neck and neck all yesterday morning.

Roughly 50/50, $6.9 million in volume…

Then BOOM…

Around 1pm, Trump's drops this…

He’s expected to endorse Coryn.

Yes, this Coryn.

Odds shifted, Cornyn: 86%. Paxton: 14%.

For context, John Cornyn is the incumbent establishment senator.

While Ken Paxton, the Attorney General, is a MAGA favorite.

Senate Majority Leader Thune had been lobbying Trump for months to back Cornyn.

The establishment spent tens of millions on Cornyn already.

During the entire cycle, Trump held off, called them both allies.

Then yesterday said he’s picking one and will ask the other to quit.

Prediction markets moved the second the signal was clear…

And someone on Polymarket was ready!

The moment Trump's post dropped and the Cornyn “expected endorsement” came out, the whale sold $20,000 No contracts at 89 cents and walked away with what I imagine was a decent profit. (I didn’t check)

Good catch by the Prediction Market Whales, real-time, live feed platform.

But is 14% on Paxton actually zero? Is this a guarantee?

Far from it…

The MAGA right is already in revolt.

Within hours Kurt Schlichter called a potential Cornyn endorsement "the biggest mistake Trump has ever made."

Jesse Kelly said Trump can't play naive outsider if he backs establishment candidates.

Mike Cernovich was blunter, "Texas voters aren't going to go with the trans kids guy instead of Paxton."

The establishment counter might have some legs though: Paxton could be a general election liability.

Democrats just nominated a stronger than expected candidate, and Texas isn't as safe as it looks if Republicans put up someone with active fraud charges and an impeachment on his record.

Look, Trump's endorsement in a Republican primary is a powerful thing.

The establishment has money, infrastructure, but 14% isn't zero.

Paxton still has a ton of support. A lot actually. And it’s not isolated to Texas.

There’s a saying that where Texas goes, the country goes — even if that’s usually said about Ohio.

But there’s of internal turmoil in the state, demographically, politically, we’re not going to get into it today, but the outcome of this race could set the tone for the Republican Senate mid-terms nationwide.

Don’t forget, in broader MAGA V GOP terms, Rep. Dan Crenshaw just lost to a Republican primary challenger.

Super MAGA guy Steve Toth.

Trump hasn’t actually said a name yet. But will he?

I mean let’s be honest. When do you think that’ll happen? There should be a prediction event about it. “When will Trump endorse so and so…

Point is, it looks like most of this “Cornyn is the favorite for the endorsement” talk is coming from the same consultants, reporters, and Senate Republicans who desperately want that to be true, not from Trump’s mouth.

Is Trump really “expected” to back Cornyn? Because the mainstream media says so?

The wisdom of crowds is real. But every so often the crowd is misled.

It ain’t over. I wouldn’t count Paxton out just yet.

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