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Fall seven times, stand up eight." — Japanese Proverb
"Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall." — Confucius
"Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts." — Winston Churchill
Here’s the ONE Story you need to know about today:
Connecticut DCP Commissioner Bryan Cafferelli: "Our actions sent a clear message. We will not tolerate illegal prediction market activity that preys upon the most vulnerable consumers. Three prediction market operators heard that message and are leaving our state accordingly."
Six are still operating. The state is waiting to see if the remaining platforms decide "targeting Connecticut consumers isn't worth breaking the law."
This is the enforcement model playing out in real time. Connecticut issued nine cease-and-desists on September 10. Within four weeks, three platforms folded.
The other six are calculating whether the revenue is worth the legal exposure, and whether the CFTC's federal preemption argument holds before a state court rules against them.
The platforms that stayed are betting on the Supreme Court.
The three that left decided the bet wasn't worth taking.
🌙 Daily Prediction Market Moonshot Report
🇷🇺 Putin out — The same wallet just put $15,000 on it
This wallet — the one that put $5,100 on Putin out two days ago — came back this morning at 4:47 AM with $15,000 on YES at 3.0 cents.
This is now the largest single Putin out trade we've seen. Same wallet. Three days. $20,100 total.
At 3 cents, $15,000 buys 500,000 YES shares. Payout if Putin exits before December 31: approximately $500,000.
This is no longer dabbling. This wallet has built a $20,100 position on Russian regime change before year end. We've featured this market six times. This wallet is the most committed buyer we've tracked on any market in the newsletter's history.
🗳️ Raphael Warnock — $3,400 at 0.6 cents
This wallet put $3,400 on YES at 0.6 cents on Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? last night at 11:15 PM.
At 0.6 cents, $3,400 buys roughly 566,000 YES shares. Payout if Warnock wins the nomination: approximately $566,000.
The Georgia Senator lost his reelection bid in 2026 against Jon Husted — wait, wrong state. Warnock is Georgia. He faces reelection in 2026 against Republican challenger Mike Collins. Someone just put $3,400 on him winning the 2028 presidential nomination regardless of what happens in November.
This wallet put $2,000 on Hormuz normalizing before October 31 — 24 days from now.
We've now tracked Hormuz normalization buyers across seven separate deadlines. The October 31 buyers keep coming. At 2.5 cents, $2,000 buys 80,000 YES shares. Payout: approximately $80,000.
Which is really interesting considering two macro analysts published charts this week telling the same story.
@akarlin on October 1: "Looks like the US basically won its war with Iran. Total flows now at prewar levels, minus Iran. It just skirts Hormuz now. Iran fired its Hormuz gun and it was a water squirt."
Then @AndreasSteno 23 hours ago: "The US has basically won the battle of Hormuz." His chart shows Gulf oil exports back to approximately 93% of 2025 pre-war levels — 23.3 mb/d, with visible flows at ~80% and estimated dark flows closing the gap.
Is this setup too good to be true? Does this mean Hormuz will absolutely go back to “normal”? No but it is interesting to feel like we’re getting somewhat closer to a resolution.
🗳️ The 2028 Republican field — two wallets, same morning
This wallet — the same one that put $2,900 on Steve Hilton winning California — put $1,500 on Ron DeSantis winning the 2028 presidency at 2.6 cents this morning.
This wallet put $1,500 on Marco Rubio winning the 2028 presidency at 3.8 cents at 5:19 AM.
Two wallets. Two names. Same morning. DeSantis and Rubio — the two most plausible Republican alternatives if Trump doesn't run or can't run.
DeSantis at 2.6 cents: payout approximately $57,700.
Rubio at 3.8 cents: payout approximately $39,500.
3.8 cents. YES. $1,000.
This wallet put $1,000 on Messi winning the award at 39 years old.
Messi won the Ballon d'Or eight times. He's now at Inter Miami. At 3.8 cents the market is pricing roughly 4% odds he wins it again. Someone thinks that's cheap.
At 3.8 cents, $1,000 buys roughly 26,300 YES shares. Payout: approximately $26,300.
Elon's new company is private. These 3 tickers aren't.
The next Apple may already exist. Insider sources say Elon has spent two years building a secret device inside Tesla's facilities — one he claims will be "10x bigger than the largest product in history."
There's just one problem: the company is private, and unless you know Elon personally, you can't buy a single share. That was true until Guardian's research team found three public ticker symbols sitting in the launch supply chain.
Click here to see all 3 tickers, free of charge.
You won't hear these names on CNBC — Wall Street hasn't published a word on the connection. But when the launch hits September 21, that quiet ends.
Some are already calling this the biggest opportunity since AI. For anyone who missed Apple before the iPhone, this may be a second look at that kind of setup.
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