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From The Prediction Market Long Odds Desk:
0.1 cents. YES. $885. Oct 21, 9:36 PM.
This wallet paid a tenth of a penny per share, the cheapest price on today’s board.
Scott chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, putting him at the center of the GOP’s fight to hold the Senate. His campaign arm took on $20 million in loans this week as Republicans pour resources into the final stretch of the midterms.
At 0.1 cents, $885 buys 885,000 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $885,000.
0.3 cents. YES. $869. Oct 21, 11:23 AM.
This wallet put $869 on a quarter-point cut at 0.3 cents.
The Fed raised rates in September to a range of 3.75%–4%, and September consumer inflation subsequently accelerated to 3.7%. Higher gasoline prices tied to the Middle East war are complicating the October 27–28 decision, with policymakers watching for energy costs to spread into broader inflation.
At 0.3 cents, $869 buys roughly 289,700 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $289,700.
0.8 cents. YES. $800. Oct 21, 11:22 PM.
This wallet put $800 on the Jazz at under a penny.
Utah opened its season Wednesday with a 123–103 loss to Memphis, surrendering a career-high 45 points to Ty Jerome. Keyonte George scored 22 for the Jazz, who return home to face New Orleans on Friday.
At 0.8 cents, $800 buys 100,000 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $100,000.
2.6 cents. YES. $1,900. Oct 21, 5:57 PM.
This wallet put $1,900 on the Pacers. It’s the second 2027 title buy in the same market yesterday, from a different wallet than the Jazz buyer.
Indiana opened its season Wednesday with a 123–120 win over New Orleans. Pascal Siakam scored 30 points and grabbed eight rebounds, while Tyrese Haliburton added 23 points and 12 assists.
At 2.6 cents, $1,900 buys roughly 73,100 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $73,100.
2.9 cents. YES. $976. Oct 21, 9:25 PM.
This wallet put $976 on a Texans title.
Houston is 2–4 heading into Sunday’s game against the Giants, with seven players missing Wednesday’s practice because of injuries. Is this guy nuts? Maybe. the good news is Tank Dell practiced fully and is expected to play for the first time since his December 2024 knee injury.
At 2.9 cents, $976 buys roughly 33,700 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $33,700.
4.7 cents. YES. $846. Oct 22, 7:12 AM.
This wallet put $846 on the bill becoming law, with about ten weeks left in the year.
The CLARITY Act would establish a federal regulatory framework for crypto markets, but the Senate blocked an effort to advance it on September 15. Democrats’ objections included concerns about President Trump’s personal crypto investments, leaving the House-passed legislation stalled.
At 4.7 cents, $846 buys 18,000 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $18,000.
4.8 cents. YES. $1,900. Oct 21, 3:12 PM.
This wallet is the second wallet in two days on this outcome. We flagged another wallet buying it at 4.9 cents on Tuesday. This one went more than twice as big.
Attacks on Gulf shipping and falling US inventories supported oil prices Wednesday, with WTI trading around $99 early in the session. Ship-tracking firm Kpler reported at least 18 vessel attacks over the previous two weeks, while analysts warned the threat extended beyond Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman.
At 4.8 cents, $1,900 buys roughly 39,600 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $39,600.
5.0 cents. YES. $2,200. Oct 21, 5:04 PM.
This wallet made the biggest non-sports buy on today’s board: $2,200 at 20-to-1 gross.
Washington expanded its economic pressure on Tehran on Wednesday, sanctioning a law firm and shipping networks accused of helping Iran move oil and other commodities. Treasury said the operation targets revenue supporting Iran’s military, weapons and nuclear programs, including networks benefiting the Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force.
At 5 cents, $2,200 buys 44,000 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $44,000.
5.1 cents. YES. $1,100. Oct 21, 1:40 PM.
This wallet put $1,100 on Shapiro. It’s the same market where we flagged a Booker buy at 0.8 cents on Tuesday.
Shapiro launched a federal PAC this month, giving him a vehicle to raise money for congressional candidates as speculation builds about a 2028 run. In Pennsylvania, he has also donated $5.6 million to downballot Democrats since the summer while pushing to pair his reelection with Democratic control of the state legislature.
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