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Happy Wednesday people,
Let’s look at today’s top stories.
Forbes published a piece on how prediction markets are crucial knowledge-givers to small business, centering on Nick Juliano, owner of Juliano & Son Contracting in northern New Jersey.
With trucks running throughout the day, fuel is one of his largest variable expenses. What happens in the Strait of Hormuz is felt directly in his operating costs. For years his only choices were passing the cost on to customers or swallowing it himself.
Prediction markets give him a third option, hedging directly against the geopolitical events that drive his fuel costs.
This is the use case the professors' op-ed explicitly carves out as legitimate. The ice cream shop owner hedging cold summers. The contractor hedging Hormuz disruptions. Real economic exposure. The list goes on and on how small businesses can leverage prediction markets.
Front Office Sports reported that the regulator is conducting a sweep of incentive programs offered by Kalshi, Polymarket, and Novig over concerns about misleading promotions. The CFTC issued an advisory in August reminding platforms of their obligations. The platforms didn't come into compliance.
The CFTC is now "frustrated" and sources say a "slew of programs deemed to be misleading" are in the crosshairs — specifically offerings promising deposits for signing up and making certain trades, "risk-free" trades, unlimited rebates, and payouts guaranteeing profits. CFTC Chairman Selig sees this as part of his broader market integrity mandate. An action of some kind is expected before Friday.
The Committee has already received nearly 1,000 documents and five briefings from Polymarket and Kalshi representatives since launching its investigation in May.
Now it's expanding to three more platforms. The specific concern: government employees, contractors, and other insiders using nonpublic or classified information to trade on prediction markets.
The Army soldier, the KPMG employee, the White House teleprompter operator, all documented cases. Comer is asking whether the platforms are doing enough to stop the next one before it happens.
🌙 Daily Prediction Market Moonshot Report
🗳️ Andy Beshear — Same Wallet, Two Markets, Three Minutes Apart
This wallet built a full Beshear 2028 position in three minutes yesterday afternoon.
4:25 PM: Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — $3,200 on YES at 2.9 cents.
4:28 PM: Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — $2,300 on YES at 1.7 cents.
Andy Beshear, by the way, is 48, has been Kentucky's governor since 2019.
He won reelection in 2023 by five points over Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron. His father is former Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear. He is not a declared presidential candidate.
His brand is the theory Democrats keep debating and rarely executing: a red-state Democrat who wins by being culturally moderate, faith-forward, and relentlessly focused on kitchen-table issues. He talks less like a national ideological combatant and more like a governor responsible for keeping hospitals, schools, roads, and disaster recovery functioning. He used Christian language without adopting the religious right's politics.
The case for 2028: A Democrat who wins Kentucky can credibly argue he has a better shot than most rivals at rebuilding a coalition in the Midwest, Appalachia, and culturally conservative regions that have drifted away from the party.
Same wallet. Nomination AND general election. Three minutes apart. $5,500 total on the Kentucky Governor.
At 2.9 cents, $3,200 buys roughly 110,300 YES shares on the nomination. Payout: approximately $110,300.
At 1.7 cents, $2,300 buys roughly 135,300 YES shares on the general. Payout: approximately $135,300.
Combined investment: $5,500. Combined potential payout: $245,600.
🇷🇺 Putin out — Two wallets, eighteen minutes apart
This wallet put $2,000 on YES at 2.0 cents at 12:48 PM. This wallet followed with $1,100 on YES at 2.1 cents at 1:06 PM.
Two wallets. Eighteen minutes apart. $3,100 combined on Putin out as President of Russia by December 31.
Combined payout if Putin exits before year end: approximately $155,000.
2.3 cents. YES. $1,000.
This wallet put $1,000 on the French far-right politician winning the presidency. Zemmour finished fourth in the 2022 election with 7% of the vote. At 2.3 cents, $1,000 buys roughly 43,500 YES shares. Payout: approximately $43,500.
3.5 cents. YES. $2,000.
This wallet put $2,000 on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before December 31. Third separate wallet on this market in one week. At 3.5 cents, $2,000 buys roughly 57,100 YES shares. Payout: approximately $57,100.
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