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Today’s top story…
Kalshi told Hawaii lawmakers the app has 100,000 users in the state, where gambling is illegal, and the number landed like a grenade in a Honolulu news segment. Hawaii is one of two states with no legal gambling whatsoever. No casinos. No lottery. No sports betting. But apparently 100,000 Kalshi users.
State Senator Lynn DeCoite’s first reaction: “They’re in existence, they need to be taxed.” State Representative Scot Matayoshi called it “a form of a loophole.” Both are right, and neither is wrong that the loophole is the entire legal argument prediction markets are running nationwide.
Kalshi’s response to Hawaiian lawmakers was the same response they give everyone: they’re more like a stock exchange than a sportsbook. Peer-to-peer contracts. No house. CFTC-regulated. Not gambling.
Hawaii’s response was the same response every state gives back: we don’t care what you call it.
We’ll keep our eyes on Hawaii as they story unfolds.
Whether they will eradicate prediction markets is up in the air but one thing is for certain and that’s election season is here and the way folks are trading them is wildly interesting.
One wallet has been quietly sweeping the entire 2028 Democratic presidential field.
Their strategy has been buying every plausible dark horse candidate at penny prices and sitting on nearly $90,000 in unrealized gains.
Here’s [ some ] of the portfolio:
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Bought at 4 cents. Now trading at 14.2 cents. 623,223 shares.
Current value: $88,809. Up $63,788 — 254.95%.
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Bought at 2.3 cents. Now trading at 10.4 cents. 307,028 shares.
Current value: $31,777. Up $24,718 — 350.2%.
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Bought at 1.4 cents yesterday. Now at 1.7 cents. 285,885 shares.
Current value: $4,860. Up $906 — 22.92%. Still early.
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Bought at 1.3 cents. Now at 2.5 cents. 136,579 shares.
Current value: $3,346. Up $1,506 — 81.86%.
Total unrealized gain across these four positions: approximately $90,918.
Buy longshots. Hold. Let the market sort out who’s viable.
The losers cost almost nothing. The winners pay for everything else and then some.
Ossoff is the proof of concept.
And yesterday he did added another Georgia name…
The event is whether or not Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
He put $4,000 at roughly 1.4 cents. Buying 285,885 shares
.
Ossoff is Georgia’s junior Senator. Warnock is Georgia’s senior Senator.
This wallet now owns both Georgia senators in the 2028 Democratic presidential field, plus Mark Kelly in Arizona.
They’re not betting on one candidate.
The names that fit the “wins where Democrats usually lose” profile that Andy Beshear represents in Kentucky.
Warnock is already up 22% since yesterday.
The question worth asking: what do they know about the 2028 Democratic field that the market hasn’t priced yet? Or are they simply spamming dark horses at dirt cheap prices?
Elon's new company is private. These 3 tickers aren't.
The next Apple may already exist. Insider sources say Elon has spent two years building a secret device inside Tesla's facilities — one he claims will be "10x bigger than the largest product in history."
There's just one problem: the company is private, and unless you know Elon personally, you can't buy a single share. That was true until Guardian's research team found three public ticker symbols sitting in the launch supply chain.
Click here to see all 3 tickers, free of charge.
You won't hear these names on CNBC — Wall Street hasn't published a word on the connection. But when the launch hits September 21, that quiet ends.
Some are already calling this the biggest opportunity since AI. For anyone who missed Apple before the iPhone, this may be a second look at that kind of setup.
If you’re politics, elections, (or anything adjacent)…
Then you need to see where the real money is moving while at the same time where the big money is ACCUMULATING.
What good is knowing where prediction market whales are placing their capital, when you can see where they are AGREEING with their capital….
Introducing Prediction Market Whale CONSENSUS. Brand new inside the prediction market whales platform.
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