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📰 FOLLOW-UP: KALSHI RESPONDS TO THE WASH TRADING ALLEGATIONS
Kalshi has formally rejected the wash trading claims — and the response raises as many questions as it answers.
Beni, co-founder of research firm Stealth Neolab, published data showing a single $5,500 order size accounted for 48-58% of Kalshi's ETH perpetual notional volume on four consecutive days.
He also flagged a 174x turnover ratio, $539 million in 24-hour volume against $3.1 million in open interest. A gap that wide is a textbook red flag for wash trading on any exchange. We mentioned yesterday that Kalshi likely has a perfectly good explanation…
Kalshi's crypto product team member IcoBeast.eth pushed back on three points:
1. The Artemis chart misread. He said the chart that started the argument measured prediction market share, not perpetuals volume. Different product, different metric.
2. Volume methodology. Kalshi counts volume as the maximum payout of contracts traded rather than cash spent, because each contract settles at $1. This is the same methodology Polymarket uses. So the volume figures are large by design, not manipulation.
3. The self-clearing member program is open. Any firm meeting CFTC requirements can apply. It's a regulatory obligation, not a handpicked insider program. Rebates are standard at CME, Hyperliquid, and Binance — the difference is Kalshi's must be filed publicly while other exchanges run deals privately.
Seems reasonable enough, right?
Happy Tuesday everyone.
🌙 Daily Prediction Market Moonshot Report
3.9 cents. YES. $1,500. 6:00 AM this morning.
This wallet put $1,500 on Putin exiting before year end.
At 3.9 cents, $1,500 buys roughly 38,500 YES shares. Payout if Putin is out before December 31: approximately $38,500.
The Russian parliamentary election just concluded. Putin is still in power. Seems like this person disagrees…
4.1 cents. YES. $1,800.
This wallet put $1,800 on Xi Jinping leaving power before 2027 yesterday afternoon.
At 4.1 cents, $1,800 buys roughly 43,900 YES shares. Payout if Xi is out: approximately $43,900.
Putin out at 3.9 cents. Xi out at 4.1 cents.
Both trades in the last 24 hours. Is someone shopping the "authoritarian leader exits" trades and buying everything under 5 cents?
4.8 cents. YES. $2,700. 5:37 AM this morning.
This wallet put $2,700 on a Bitcoin crash to $45,000 before year end.
At 4.8 cents, $2,700 buys roughly 56,250 YES shares. Payout if BTC hits $45K: approximately $56,250.
Bitcoin is currently trading well above $45,000.
Someone woke up at 5:37 AM and bet on a wicked dip before December 31.
5.8 cents. YES. $1,200.
This wallet put $1,200 on Steve Hilton (the former Fox News host) winning the California governorship yesterday morning.
At 5.8 cents, $1,200 buys roughly 20,700 YES shares. Payout if Hilton wins: approximately $20,700.
Gavin Newsom's whale consensus was YES at $2.1M when we covered it in July.
Someone just put $1,200 on the long shot challenger. California hasn't elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006.
More moonshot opportunities updated in real time at Prediction Market Whales.
Elon's new company is private. These 3 tickers aren't.
The next Apple may already exist. Insider sources say Elon has spent two years building a secret device inside Tesla's facilities — one he claims will be "10x bigger than the largest product in history."
There's just one problem: the company is private, and unless you know Elon personally, you can't buy a single share. That was true until Guardian's research team found three public ticker symbols sitting in the launch supply chain.
Click here to see all 3 tickers, free of charge.
You won't hear these names on CNBC — Wall Street hasn't published a word on the connection. But when the launch hits September 21, that quiet ends.
Some are already calling this the biggest opportunity since AI. For anyone who missed Apple before the iPhone, this may be a second look at that kind of setup.
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