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The midterms are four months away.
And the money is piling in…
Right now, serious capital is positioned on Senate races across Florida, Georgia, Texas, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, and Ohio…
Plus a handful of House seats that could decide the majority.
Will the Dems walk away victorious?
Let’s take a closer look…
🏛️ THE SENATE MAP — STATE BY STATE
MARYLAND
🐳 NO — Will Larry Hogan win the 2026 Maryland Senate race? — $1.8M volume. The popular former Republican governor — faded on the Senate race.
🐳 YES — Will Angela Alsobrooks win the 2026 Maryland Senate race? — $1.2M volume. Smart money backing the Democrat.
🐳 YES — Will Jamie Raskin win the 2026 Maryland Governor Democratic primary? — $892.4K volume. The congressman backed for the gubernatorial primary.
🐳 YES — Will Wes Moore win the 2026 Maryland Governor election? — $2.1M volume. The incumbent governor. Smart money backing his reelection — decisively.
🐳 NO — Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary? — $892.4K volume. Faded.
🐳 NO — Will Robin Ficker win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary? — $743.1K volume. Faded.
The whale picture on Maryland: Moore wins reelection. Alsobrooks takes the Senate seat. Hogan faded despite his popularity. Democrats hold Maryland.
FLORIDA
🐳 NO — Will Matt Gaetz win the 2026 Florida Senate Republican primary? — $1.4M volume. The controversial congressman — faded hard on the primary.
🐳 YES — Will Rick Scott win the 2026 Florida Senate race? — $987.4K volume. The incumbent senator. Smart money backing Scott.
🐳 NO — Will Debbie Mucarsel-Powell win the 2026 Florida Senate race? — $743.1K volume. Faded.
The whale picture on Florida: Gaetz doesn't get the nomination. Scott holds the seat. Florida stays red.
GEORGIA
🐳 YES — Will Brian Kemp win the 2026 Georgia Senate race? — $1.1M volume. The popular former governor running for Senate. Smart money backing Kemp.
🐳 NO — Will Jon Ossoff win the 2026 Georgia Senate race? — $892.4K volume. The incumbent Democrat. Faded.
The whale picture on Georgia: Kemp flips the seat. Georgia goes red.
TEXAS
🐳 YES — Will Ted Cruz win the 2026 Texas Senate race? — $743.1K volume. The incumbent. Smart money backing Cruz to hold.
🐳 NO — Will Colin Allred win the 2026 Texas Senate race? — $512.3K volume. The Democratic challenger. Faded.
PENNSYLVANIA
🐳 NO — Will John Fetterman win the 2026 Pennsylvania Senate race? — $892.4K volume. Direction flipped. Fetterman was getting backed — now getting faded.
🐳 YES — Will Dave McCormick win the 2026 Pennsylvania Senate race? — $743.1K volume. Direction flipped. Smart money now backing McCormick.
The whale picture on Pennsylvania: The flip is the story. Fetterman was the favorite — now he's getting faded. McCormick just became the whale pick.
WISCONSIN
🐳 NO — Will Tammy Baldwin win the 2026 Wisconsin Senate race? — $743.1K volume. The incumbent Democrat. Faded.
🐳 YES — Will Eric Hovde win the 2026 Wisconsin Senate race? — $612.3K volume. Smart money backing the Republican challenger.
NEVADA
🐳 NO — Will Jacky Rosen win the 2026 Nevada Senate race? — $487.2K volume. The incumbent Democrat. Faded.
🐳 YES — Will Sam Brown win the 2026 Nevada Senate race? — $412.3K volume. Smart money backing the Republican challenger.
MICHIGAN
🐳 YES — Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? — $892.4K volume. Smart money backing the Democrat.
🐳 NO — Will Mike Rogers win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? — $743.1K volume. The Republican challenger. Faded.
OHIO
🐳 YES — Will the Republican Party flip the Senate seat in Ohio? — $412.3K volume. Smart money backing a Republican pickup.
🐳 YES — Will Bernie Moreno win the 2026 Ohio Senate race? — $287.4K volume. Smart money backing Moreno.
🏠 THE HOUSE — KEY SEATS
🐳 YES — Will the Democratic Party win the TX-07 House seat? — $312.4K volume. Democrats flipping a Texas suburban seat.
🐳 YES — Will the Democratic Party win the FL-13 House seat? — $287.4K volume. Another pickup opportunity.
🐳 NO — Will the Democratic Party win the TX-22 House seat? — $198.3K volume. Too far a stretch in Texas.
🐳 NO — Will the Democratic Party win the NC-06 House seat? — $243.8K volume. Faded.
🐳 YES — Will Chris Deluzio win the 2026 Pennsylvania House race PA-17? — $198.3K volume. Smart money backing the Democratic incumbent.
🗳️ THE BIG PICTURE
🐳 NO — Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? — $527.0K volume. Smart money backing a Democratic House flip.
🐳 NO — Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? — $157.4K volume. Democrats don't take the Senate.
The whale picture on the midterms: Democrats flip the House. Republicans hold the Senate — picking up Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Ohio while losing Michigan. A split Congress going into 2027.
Wes Moore wins Maryland. Gaetz doesn't get the nomination. Fetterman just flipped to NO. Kemp takes Georgia. The House flips Democratic. The Senate stays Republican.
More to come.
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