In partnership with
___________________________________________________________________
Prediction Market Edge
June 30, 2026
The Fed may start cutting in a few weeks and begin with .25.
Also, full disclosure, I have a very small position in Kalshi of this position and will not sell it. What’s the point in having an opinion about the market, finance, fed, without putting some money behind it?
I’ll go into a little more details and the Fed but first congratulations on making through Q2.
Let’s get ahead of Q3 by beginning with something new.
See, it’s usually pretty binary when the financial media covers the Fed. They’ll ask whether they hold or cut.
If they’re hawks vs. doves.
But in prediction markets, you get an entirely different scenario.
Smart money isn't betting on one meeting. Hawks or doves.
They’re betting on the entire sequence. The result is the picture it's painting is more specific than what you’ll read in the Wall Street Journal or watch on financial/social media.
Prediction market whales, in particular, aren't asking "what does Warsh do next?"
They're asking "what does Warsh do for the rest of the year?"
Take a look…
Also included is other events worth noting.
🏦 THE FED — THE SEQUENCE MARKETS NOBODY'S COVERING
This isn’t just "does the Fed cut in July", but the exact pattern of decisions across the next three meetings, priced in real time by serious capital.
🐳 YES — Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? — $17.4K volume. Smart money backing three consecutive holds. No movement through October.
🐳 NO — Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? — $6.6K volume. Whales don't see any deviation from the hold pattern.
🐳 YES — Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? — $5.5K volume. Same thesis — holds all the way through September.
🐳 NO — Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — $38.9K volume. Not happening.
🐳 NO — Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — $12.4K volume. Someone actually made this market. Whales say absolutely not.
The whale picture on the Fed: Three pauses. No cuts. No hikes. Warsh holds through July, September, and October. The market has already written the script, the only question is whether the Fed follows it.
🏛️ 2028 REPUBLICAN — THE NAME EVERYONE MISSED
While the media focused on DeSantis and Pence and Vivek, one name quietly accumulated $1.8 million in whale backing and nobody talked about it.
🐳 YES — Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — $1.8M volume. The Florida congressman. Smart money backing him — hard. Bigger volume than DeSantis, bigger than Hegseth, bigger than MTG.
Worth paying attention to.
💰 CRYPTO & FINANCE — THE SAYLOR MARKETS
🐳 NO — Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026? — $2.5K volume. Whales don't see federal charges coming for the MicroStrategy founder this year.
🐳 NO — Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? — $6.9K volume. The collapse thesis — faded.
🇮🇷 IRAN — TWO MARKETS THAT TELL A STORY
🐳 YES — Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31? — $1.6K volume. Small but pointed. Smart money sees Iran making a move on shipping before September.
🐳 NO — Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? — $1.3K volume. The Supreme Leader's son — the most obvious succession candidate — and whales don't expect a public appearance before September. That absence is itself a signal.
🤖 AI — THE BENCHMARK MARKET
🐳 YES — AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? — $1.1K volume. FrontierMath is one of the hardest mathematical benchmarks in existence. Someone put real money on an AI hitting 90% before year end.
🐳 NO — Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? — $11.2K volume. Not this summer.
🗳️ DOWN-BALLOT — ONE TO WATCH
🐳 NO — Will Tracie Burke be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? — $6.3K volume. Smart money fading the Louisiana Senate challenger.
🌍 ONE MORE THING
🐳 NO — Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? — $13.3K volume. No peace deal before September. Whales are certain.
🐳 NO — Will Falcons make a roster change before August? — $2.6K volume. Atlanta stays put for now.
Three pauses. No cuts. No hikes. That’s what they’re thinking.
For now! We’ll see what Warsh holds through October while the world watches.
Who knows.
This isn’t a macro research letter but one of the things I’ve been thinking about is since the Fed’s eradication of forward guidance does it enable them to be flexible enough to start shifting toward a cut as soon as July? Maybe a .25 cut?
I think so. The public knows lower rates will help Trump, and on some pseudo communication level I think the public believes lower rates will help them financially.
So the impact on image or leadership won’t be in question by regular people.
By economists sure, and the financial media, of course. They’ll crucify and kick and scream but nothing will happen.
Is it too soon before election season?
Think about it, how soon is too soon? You know how fast the news cycle moves happen nowadays?
Iran war is still going on and it’s barely making headlines.
Heaven forbid, they DO cut, and the mark vomits for a couple days, it won’t matter because we’re in the days of fast V shape recoveries.
Sure, the whales don’t agree, they’re not going to.
But it’s entirely possible. Not out of the question.
Last checked, there’s about a less than 1% chance a cut over .5 and a 2% (or less) chance they’ll cut .25.
So we’ll see. Anything could happen.
And when you look past the headlines anything typically does happen.
Click here to learn what prediction market whales do next.
Don’t Wait for the OpenAI IPO
OpenAI and Anthropic could be two of the biggest AI IPOs Wall Street has seen in years.
But investors don’t have to wait for those names to hit the public markets to get exposure to the AI boom.
MarketBeat’s 7 AI Stocks to Buy Now report reveals 7 publicly traded companies already positioned to benefit as the next wave of AI investment moves beyond the private model providers.
These are the stocks investors can buy today, before the IPO crowd rushes in.
__________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER:
The Content is not intended to provide, and does not constitute, financial, investment, trading, tax, legal, or any other form of professional advice. It is not a recommendation, suggestion, solicitation, or offer to buy, sell, trade, or hold any securities, event contracts, derivatives, cryptocurrencies, or other financial instruments on platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, or any other prediction market.
Prediction Market Edge believes the Content is reliable but makes no representations or warranties as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or suitability for any purpose. The Content is subject to change without notice, and Prediction Market Edge assumes no duty or obligation to update it.
Trading in prediction markets involves significant risk of loss, including the potential loss of your entire investment. Past performance (including any highlighted “wins” or gains) is not indicative of future results. Markets are volatile, influenced by news, liquidity, resolution rules, and other factors, and individual results will vary. Subscribers and readers should conduct their own independent research, consider their financial situation, risk tolerance, and objectives, and consult qualified professionals before making any trading or investment decisions.
Prediction Market Edge is not responsible for any third-party information, market data, platform rules, or services referenced herein, including but not limited to Polymarket, Kalshi, or other exchanges. Use of the Content is at your own risk.
By subscribing to or accessing this Newsletter or related materials, you agree that Prediction Market Edge and its affiliates shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or other damages arising from your use of the Content.
For important additional information, please review our full Terms of Service, Privacy Policy, and any Subscription Agreement (available on predictionmarketedge.com).