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“Everything in moderation, including moderation.” ― Oscar Wilde”
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Today’s top stories begins with a headline that reads Prediction Markets Could Cost 225,000 Gambling Jobs. However…
An IGA-commissioned study projects up to 225,000 gaming jobs lost and $39.4 billion in displaced revenue.
The problem with that framing is that worst-case scenario requires platforms to win federal approval for casino-style iGaming products across all 50 states.
I mean, what are the odds that’ll happen? (no pun intended)
The CFTC just codified the opposite position, Chairman Selig stated flatly that casino-style gambling products are not derivatives.
The study’s realistic floor scenario (sports contracts only) projects 38,000 jobs and $7.3B in revenue.
The IGA commissioned this study.
Raúl Labrador joined a 39-state coalition challenging CFTC authority over state gambling regulation and filed comments against Kalshi’s position.
Kalshi just gave his campaign $5,000, plus $5,000 to the Idaho House Republican Caucus, $1,000 to the House Speaker, and $500 each to nine other incumbents.
Total: $15,500 to Idaho Republicans in one month.
Labrador’s office says no donation changes his position.
Kalshi is currently hosting 24 Idaho election markets including one on Labrador’s own re-election, with $42,896 in volume pricing him at 96% to win. They’re pricing his victory while funding his campaign.
And congrats to Will Gottsegen, as The Atlantic Launches Over/Under. A Dedicated Prediction Markets Newsletter…
Are they my competitor? No. Do I care? No. I’m sure it’ll be a great newsletter.
Or it won’t be. But I wish him the best.
It covers prediction markets, sports gambling, and the “culture of risk in America”.
🌙 Moonshot Report — October 15, 2026
Arizona Cardinals — 2027 NFL Champion
Wallet: 0x2FD9...1C31 | Price: 0.2¢ | Notional: $827 | Time: Oct 14, 21:02
At one-fifth of a penny, this is the floor of the prediction market odds ladder. The Cardinals went 8-9 last season and missed the playoffs. Someone just put $827 on them hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February 2027. If it hits, the payout is roughly $413,000. That’s not a forecast, but even if his 0.2¢ moves to 10¢ — it’s a 50x move.
$827 × 50 = $41,350 if sold at 10¢.
Fed +50bps — October 2026 Meeting
Wallet: 0x9F2F...2cA8 | Price: 0.6¢ | Notional: $1,000 | Time: Oct 14, 14:16
The Fed hasn’t moved 50 basis points since the rate-cut cycle began. Markets are pricing near-zero probability of a hike of any size, let alone a double move. This wallet disagrees — $1,000 worth. The October meeting decision lands later this month. Payout if correct: ~$167,000.
Bitcoin hits $140,000 by December 31, 2026
Wallet: 0x6Db9...4Ab5 | Price: 3.0¢ | Notional: $1,600 | Time: Oct 14, 13:56
BTC would need to roughly double from current levels in under 11 weeks. The market is pricing it at 3 cents. Someone put $1,600 on it anyway — potential return ~$53,000.
Bitcoin dips to $40,000 by December 31, 2026
Wallet: 0x972C...9492 | Price: 3.5¢ | Notional: $1,000 | Time: Oct 14, 21:56
The bear case on the same timeline. BTC would need to shed roughly 40% in 11 weeks. Priced at 3.5¢. Payout if correct: ~$28,500. Both the $140K bull and the $40K bear showed up in yesterday’s feed, someone is buying the tails in both directions.
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