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There’s a scene in Casino where Robert De Niro’s Ace Rothstein walks into his gaming license hearing fully prepared. He has his documents and a report from retired FBI agents clearing him of any wrongdoing. He’s confident that all he has to do is present his case.
The commission doesn’t even let him enter it into the record. Motion to deny. Seconded. Done. Hearing adjourned.
Kalshi knows the feeling. It keeps showing up with its federal paperwork: CFTC registration, a regulator suing states on its behalf. And court after court keeps voting before the paperwork matters. This week, it went 0 for 32.
The full Ninth Circuit, all 29 judges, refused to rehear its ruling that Kalshi’s sports contracts are gambling under state law. A day later, a three-judge Second Circuit panel refused to let Kalshi and Coinbase keep offering sports contracts in New York and Connecticut while their appeals play out.
Better Markets, an advocacy group that has fought prediction markets for years, put the count bluntly: not one of 32 judges sided with Kalshi.
Victor Rocha put it even more bluntly on X: “Kalshi will lose sports betting.”
He may be right. Utah has filed felony charges. DraftKings and FanDuel have already pulled out of Utah. Bills to rein in sports contracts are moving in both parties.
And the Third Circuit, the one appeals court that sided with Kalshi, is now the outlier the Supreme Court is being asked to overrule.
And the voters aren’t helping.
On Tuesday, Nebraskans rejected Initiatives 440 and 441, which would have legalized online sports betting, despite a campaign that raised more than $20 million. Former Huskers coach Tom Osborne led the opposition.
The case for Kalshi now rests on two things: the CFTC, which is still suing states to defend sports contracts, and the Supreme Court, which hasn’t decided whether to take New Jersey’s case.
That’s a lot of weight on two pillars.
And sports is where most of the money is.
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